Haven't bothered clicking on or reading the article. Perhaps we have some exports but I would expect those would be less total than during the height of OIF and OEF circa 2007 when we had an active two-front war brewing with 150,000 deployed service members and extremely high training environments domestically.
According to Ammoland, in 2017 about 8 billion rounds of ammo were made in the USA in 2017.
Article first appeared on Ammoland.com U.S.A. –-(AmmoLand.com)- For the second time in a decade, demand for ammunition has outstripped supply in the United States. The first ammunition bubble was from 2012 to 2017. The next started in 2020. Ammunition manufacturers have increased their capacity...
gunsinthenews.com
Current shortages? I'm going to hazard a guess. Ten times the demand as there is production.
- 50,000,000 new gun purchase background checks, which probably average at least 2 guns per check, in the last 15 months. That's probably 100 million guns purchased on 4473s, and most people buy ammo for a new gun.
- Probably twice that transferred privately.
- Some 8+ million brand new gun owners in the last year, all probably buying an average of 2 guns and 1000 rds per gun. 8,000,000 x 2,000 = a LOT of ammunition being purchased. Just a guess but around 16 BILLION rds of ammo in just those rough numbers from new gun owners.
- People are also hoarding ammo due to concerns of limits and bans and restrictions.
The demand has been astronomical sans any alleged "exports." The demand is probably into a trillion rounds of ammo since 1/2020. Nobody has the capacity to crack that out fast...
Have to agree with LC on this. Here's why we are seeing the inpact from it we are. Covid 19.
Even with record demand, the companies can pnly do so much, to counter the harder hit they are taking, because, to keep running, they have to follow the safe distance and handling guidelines, laid out on the federal and state levels. That means less employees, over more space, which will lower output, from the plants making the ammo, the distributors, taking in, and shipping out the ammo, to the retail locations. This adds a delay.
The same rules also apply to the companies making the cases, primers, and other components as well, affecting output by the manufacturers, as they are not getting the stuff in, at the rate they are sending it out, and may have to wait longer between runs, on specific calibers, until they have the minimum quantities for a batch. Used to happen quite often, when I worked in a grinding and cutoff wheel manufacturing plant. Order of 200 of X wheel, when we don't run a batch of less than 2,000 of them, we have 100 on the shelf, it's not worth firing up the line to make that other 100, until we have 1,500 ordered by a distributor.
Because, we have to pay the team that prints the labels, the supplier of the rings, the supplier of the paper, the in plant crew that makes the fiberglass weave reinforcer discs, the company making the grit, which all have minimum orders, we have to meet. And that's not even getting into internal costs, You have to pay the mix department, to mix, and feed the machine, the press operators, the electric for the machine, air and hydraulics, as well as the ovens, and the over coordinator, putting them in, and taking them out, the line workers taking them off the pins and plates, packagers, and shipping department, all on the inside of the plant, then your shipper, to send them to your distributors.
Hence, to keep costs reasonable, a 2,000 wheel minimum order, on the plant level. And that's not even counting the companies mining the abrasive ore, from the ground. Ammunition companies deal with the same thing, with most, if not all components, not made in house.
Now, I know what some will ask. If they have to have more room to work, why not use this as a chance to expand, and make more lines? To that, I ask, will you still, in two years, be looking to order 10,000 rounds at a time? Every three moths or so? How about your friends, will they?
Expanding production to meet short term, or long term demand, can cost millions, and spending even a few hundred thousand now, that's money that takes years, if not decades, to recoup. Expanding now, in the panic, could kill most companies, within 5 years, because most customers will continue to buy a box or two at a time, so you are also paying more employees, who will also end up without a job, even if the company survives, and sells of those additional assets, to keep from having to shut down. Sure, rampping up now, will show a little more profit now, but it is false economy. The only way it would have paid off, is if you started doing the growth about a year ago, and you already own the land and building outright, and could **** it down once demand returns to normal.
What will happen is this. Things will slow down, production will catch up, and we'll have a surplus again, drving prices back down. Same as it did with ARs, when Obama took office, and with standard capacity magazines, after the 94 AWB went away. Trust me, that's how it has gone, and how it will go.
Want to speed the process up, you and all your friends need to stop panic buying every round on the shelf, and get everyone you know to do the same. I have bought exactly 7 boxes of ammo since last March. I have passed them up, when buying a gun in a caliber I have, and except for 2 boxes, have only bought what I didn't already own, with a new purchase.
Here's how you prevent being dinged by the next panic. Even when you don't think you need to buy ammo, if you are somewhere that sells it, buy a box or two, every time you are in such a place. Get a few hundred or thousand deep on one caliber, switch to another, or buy it in mixed lots. This is the 5th panic I remember being in, between state and federal incidents, and you know what I've never done? Run out of ammo. And I buy some of it to donate to training classes, and youth shooting programs, annually.
No conspiracy Tin. Just above average demand, combined with a good thing, new shooters getting into the sport, and low production of components, due to the effects of the pandemic. All it is. This too shall pass.
fromthetrenchesworldreport.com
