If their plan is to force people into the cities, they're beyond ignorant of tactics, let alone history...
Cities are where wars grind to a halt. Cities are where insurgencies last for decades. Cities are the modern day gates of Thermopaylae.
[ame]http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=8b3_1267632181[/ame]
Wars are never won on the battlefield, they're won politically, at the political centers. The Vietcong didn't win battles, but in the end, they won the politics of America, and drew us out.
Every major insurgency operates along the same lines....
That said. I would never want to be in a city in SHTF...but face it, if you're fighting, the city is the place to be.
There is very little the enemy can do. Even when you're fighting an adversary that could care less about collateral damage, like the Russians vs. the Chechens, there was still little the Russians could do in response to urban snipers.
Chechen would shoot a Russian officer, Russians would level a city block... 50 more Chechens would join the fight because now their home is gone and their families killed.
This isn't a place you can just drop a bomb on and call it a day...
[ame]http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=2d5_1352004855[/ame]
In Iraq, you see extreme constraints of war, soldiers stressed to the max, trying to avoid civilian casualties, but still making mistakes, which recruits more people to the cause.
If you saw on the news, In America, a leaked video from the internet, showing some GI, National Guard, SWAT, or whatever authority figure, fire into a crowd out of stress, or run over some grandmom because he was trying to get through an area he thought was an ambush, you'd see the political clout for sustained operations dry up overnight.
We're STILL talking about Kent State today.
The cities are veritable mazes, large dense populations to recruit people, create networks, blend into civilian sectors.
Look to the IRA, and the troubles...look at the "South Armaugh Boys."
[ame]http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e87_1277465291[/ame]
These people blend right back into the civilian population.
Here is FLIR footage from a city...note, the insurgents are hanging around, making themselves visible, and still, it's hard to see them. Had they used better tactics, this wouldn't have happened... I highly doubt the US pilot would have had authorization to shot, had the insurgents been inside a house, or if innocent people had been present.
[ame]http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d81_1235653778[/ame]
As opposed to being in a rural area...
[ame]http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=2f5_1355841368[/ame]
How do you defend against something like Juba, in an urban area?
(Turn off the crappy propaganda music)
[ame]http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=4e2_1311303183[/ame]
It should be noted that they believe Juba, as he is called, made his shots from inside a vehicle.
Cities in America already have extensive underground networks, which funnel drugs and guns to gangs in cities. Keep in mind, these cities are places where the constitution doesn't exist, because no one really bats an eye if the police knock down the doors to every section 8 housing center in Chicago. So these people (drug dealers, organized crime elements), have mastered the art, already.
Believe it or not, every city in America is already running an active insurgency, similar to what is happening in Iraq. Instead of shooting soldiers and running bombs, they're selling drugs, evading police, and fighting each other. How hard would it be for these people to switch to a "resistance type insurgency."
And don't underestimate, if there was an "insurgency" in any city, it will be masked, hidden or helped by active LA style looting, riots etc...
I'm just pulling numbers out of my *** here, but let's just say, for every 1 person fighting an "insurgency", how many people in the cities will just be looting, causing trouble for the heck of it, or using the opportunity to "stick it to the man." 10? 20?...
Keep in mind, that this is occurring as we call society at its pinnacle...things are in place, like funding, the court system, etc...
If there was ANY type of disruption like economic collapse, martial law, whatever you want the scenario to be... The cities are going to be a veritable nightmare for ANY occupying force, domestic or foreign...
I think rural areas will be extremely easy to "clean up", by a force. The problem with rural areas in America will be the sheer volume of land. What is Iraq? the size of Texas? Include Afghanistan, and you have lets just call it, Texas, Oklahoma, Arizona and Nevada.
I don't think it's possible to do any type of campaign based on the sheer size and volume.
Look at massive manhunts in rural areas, look how many resources and dollars something like that ties up. DB Cooper and Eric Rudolph come to mind...
I couldn't imagine trying to carry out manhunts for 10-20 people at the same time, across the country.
Either way, I think an occupying force will have a nightmare on their hands...
Also, keep in mind that these above scenarios IRA, Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechnya...these are all countries that are populated by people who are used to not being free. These people have been told what to do most of their lives, and they have little or no legal access to guns. Yet they operated a counter insurgency which was and is a nightmare for the occupying force.
Also keep in mind that (in my opinion), the longer the US is occupied with problems, other countries can use that time to expand.
If the US is bogged down with internal troubles, China and Russia can use the time to secure oil in the ME, and rare earth minerals in Africa and Afghanistan.
South American dictators can use the chance to expand across Latin America, and the ME might see an opportunity to attack Israel.
If any type of large internal trouble happened in America, I would bet bottom dollar that Russia, China, and Venezuela (and potentially Cuba) will start tossing weapons, including explosives into America to keep the fire burning.
Just my take on it....Cities are not a good place to be, unless you're actively trying to fight.
I hope something like this never happens due to the global implications. I see a distracted America, while the rest of the planet uses the opportunity to grab a piece of the global pie. I see America coming out of it, to an entirely different planet.
Just my opinion, again. But still scary, none the less...
