The Most Probable Scenario

Discussion in 'Survival & Sustenance Living Forum' started by CaptainCappin, Jul 25, 2007.

  1. CaptainCappin

    CaptainCappin New Member

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    What do you think the most likely apocalyptic scenario would be to occur *if at all* *first* in the future?

    Nuclear War? Economic Depression? Famine? Plague? etc...
     
  2. allmons

    allmons New Member

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    Probably will start as a terrorist attack

    The may utilize chemical or biological weapons, but I suspect that the most likely will be a series of dirty bombs along the Eastern coast. Look for New York, Washington, Baltimore, Boston and probably down the Virginia coastline.

    Scenario: Panic stricken Easterners flee with little more than the clothes on their backs. No cash, most with no pre selected plan and panic driven flight.
    Most credit card approval centers are in Maryland, so kiss most credit - and a lot of debit - cards goodbye. Now they are fleeing with little gas, no plan and NO MONEY.

    North and South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee will get hammered with terrified travelers - some of whom will be radioactive contaminated.

    This will put a huge strain on the infrastructure of several states that are NOT prepared for the population overflow.

    Then the feces will really start to hit the fan. Think marshal law, curfews, usurpation of basic rights and freedoms. In short, a recipe for absolute chaos.

    :confused:
     

  3. bkt

    bkt New Member

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    The question is whether they'd be going for casualties or chaos. If the former, expect major population centers to be hit simultaneously, followed up by similar hits in other major areas soon thereafter. If the latter, they'll go after financial areas and infrastructure: WTC redux, government centers, Delaware, Baltimore, the few refineries we have operating, pipelines, major roadways, major distribution centers, and maybe nuke plants.

    That's a helluva lot of coordination.

    Pop a nuke a couple hundred miles straight up and north of North Dakota and you'll likely fry most electronics in North America. The trick is getting a big nuke a couple hundred miles up. Unless Russia or China are gonna supply the transportation, this shouldn't be a huge weight on your shoulders.

    Nukes are unpleasant devices and I sure wouldn't want to be around one when it does its thing, but the radiation threat is probably somewhat less than one might expect. Decay is pretty quick (weeks) and fallout dangerous enough to people tends to fall to the ground in a few hours and is not carried thousands of miles. Smaller radioactive particles are carried thousands of miles but are so dispersed by the time they hit the ground they don't pose much more risk than walking through a hallway made of cinder blocks. The prudent thing to know the prevailing wind patterns for your area.

    If you have seen [ame="http://youtube.com/watch?v=-taU9d26wT4"]this video[/ame], I sincerely hope you all would do your utmost to prevent these pieces of dirt from trying to confiscate firearms.
     
  4. allmons

    allmons New Member

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    Tennessee ain't New Orleans!

    There is a deer rifle behind every door, and God help the fools who try to take anything from anybody. We do watch out for our neighbors.

    Remember, boys and girls - kevlar is bullet resistant but it is NOT flame proof. It melts readily when a small amount of accelerant and ignition are provided.

    ;)
     
  5. ScottG

    ScottG New Member

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    So you're sayin' you'd shoot a Mosin Nagant M44 at them?
     
  6. pioneer461

    pioneer461 New Member

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    If a nuke is detonated in an American city, EVERYTHING CHANGES. The world as we have known it will cease to exist.

    It is said that the Japanese decided not to invade the United States following the attack on Pearl Harbor, because they were detered by the fact that so many Amereicans were armed. I don't know if that is true, but I fear that the enemy we now face is not detered by any level of force. With the exception of thier senior leaders, the terrorists actually want to die. How the hell do you defend against that?
     
  7. FALPhil

    FALPhil New Member

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    IMO, the most likely scenario will be that the central government will accelerate its presumption of power and begin dismantling constitutional protections in a rapid, systematic manner. It will begin rounding up "undesirables" and begin adding many subgroups to that category and requiring them to forfeit all assets. There will be a catalyst event, but the event will be coincidental and used as an excuse without being a reason. A great deal of propaganda will be produced which will fool and instill unwarranted fear in the majority of the people who are not classified as undesirable, and those fools will clamor for more usurpation of control by the central government.

    The groundwork has already been laid with the asset forfeiture laws, RICO, the "Patriot" Act, a standing army, and a multitude of executive orders related to civil disturbances.

    Remember, there is no constitutional warrant for martial law in the USA, and its use is strictly illegal.
     
  8. bkt

    bkt New Member

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    Establish a deterrent. It would be very refreshing to hear our president say something like:
     
  9. RONSERESURPLUS

    RONSERESURPLUS New Member

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    Most probable Senario

    Hello all


    RON L = SERESURPLUS



    I see an economic breakdown, with coupled more terror attacks from our buddies in the MIDDLE EAST! A Dirty BOMB, Perhaps, a Lot more GUN CONTROL and WEAPONS Prohibitions? You bet? What will remain, is the real folks that eat breath SURVIVAL will make it! Those with a Plan and preps stand a chance, those on the sidelines? Well, someone gotta be the slave? I'm 50, I've lived a good life, I won't die on my kneee's if it comes it it? I'll give back as good as I get?


    I'd like to think I can slink off to live a peacefull life, but thats never really been the way, has it? I'd like to live as Survivalist Farmer, with maybe a small route for Trade, but I doubt it will be allowed? I think the days ahead are bad indeed?
     
  10. rachilders

    rachilders New Member

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    I agree. If you want a preview of what to expect, look at New Orleans after hurricane Katrina hit the gulf coast. I live in east Texas and we had (STILL have in many places like Houston) similar problems with refugees after Katrina 2 years ago. In fact, after almost 2 years, there are still a lot of Katrina refugees/evacuees who haven't returned, though it has as much to do with the mismanagement of the rebuilding and recovery effort at ALL levels as anything involving the hurricane/flood itself. :mad:
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2007
  11. Fatal-Limit

    Fatal-Limit New Member

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    It's Hillary's Fault

    I am a former Army Ranger, Navy Seal and Law Enforcement. So if that means anything to anyone great. I am no a conspiracy nut but just think about this small fact. Since the attack of 9/11 there has been no attack of any type in the USA, sure some cells have been broken up, but these were low level, quite stupid ill trained and meagerly supported terrorists at best. It made for good headlines and gave the folks at Homeland defense something to brag about.

    My sincere feeling is that the terrorists are patiently waiting, plotting and already in place to spring their next series of attacks. The reason for the waiting game is that they do not want to interfere with the election. It is my opinion that the democrats will most likely win the Presidential election sad but true, an attack in the USA prior to the presidential election would ensure a war hawk republican would win easily. Just as they the terrorists changed the outcome of the Spanish elections with the Madrid bombings, their lack of actions will only help elect an anti military democrat candidate that as history and their comment show, will have a weak response to obvious threats.
     
  12. notdku

    notdku Administrator Staff Member

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    I'm guessing a pandemic or drought/flood in the Midwest leading to mass food shortages.
     
  13. rickrem700

    rickrem700 New Member

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    Kevlar



    Thats a good one, I'll have to put that in my arsenal!!!!
     
  14. rickrem700

    rickrem700 New Member

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    Everything changes!!!


    Give them what they wan't!!! Buy more ammo!!!
     
  15. rickrem700

    rickrem700 New Member

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    Economic Breakdown

    Ron; my hats off to you, thats is exactly what is going on, good to find like minded people!!!
     
  16. fornra

    fornra New Member

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    I look for an economic breakdown to lead the way as our monitairy system is already set for disaster; It's not worth the fabric it's printed on and becoming worse daily.
    Our government's answer to all money problems is to print more which only devalue,s the dollar more in the world market.
    I feel that massive food shortages will hit about the same time, followed closely by a complete collapse of our economy. Has anyone noticed the outbreaks of Ecoli and samilnila poisioning besides me, wonder why?
    The barter system and the will and means to survive is all that will keep us alive.
     
  17. Deduke

    Deduke New Member

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    Picture this :
    Nuclear devices are set off in 6 or 8 major cities - Washington, New York, L.A., Houston, Atlanta, or pick your favorite.

    Naturally, the police forces in these cities are overwhelmed, and eventually become ineffective.

    The gangs take over the streets. Blacks, browns, skinheads, MS13, Bloods, Crips, all run wild. Anarchy rules the cities.

    Neighborhoods become enclaves of self-defending families. Those who are able to get out of town hit the road, looking for a safe place. Cell phones become paper weights. Communication is done with CB radios. Money is now food, gasoline, and ammo. That case of .22 LRs is now your retirement account.

    People with a place to go and a plan survive. Those without a plan don't.
    Now is the time to prepare. If it doesn't happen, I will gladly stand up on Main Street and tell everybody in earshot that I am a big ol' dumbass.
     
  18. Chuck

    Chuck New Member

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    Economic Depression is the closest of the bunch to reality. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a tax revolt sometime in the near future.
     
  19. Carbine

    Carbine New Member

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    I'm not a survivalist by any means, but I totally understand your statement above. I have always had lots of .22LR on hand, as well as a lot of surplus ammo for my WWII bolt-action rifle.

    If anyone doesn't agree, think back to the L.A. riots a few years ago, and how anarchy ruled for days, in a major American city. It's really sad.

    It's also another reason I like living in a rural setting, because the potential for major trouble in the cities is too high. My neighbors and I would be a formidable force to anarchists.
     
  20. Quasi

    Quasi New Member

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    I'd go with Economic Depression (take your pick of real estate crash leading to a stock market crash and a run on the banks, dollar devaluation/hyperinflation, and/or energy prices reaching a tipping point.)

    Pandemic seems like a possibility.

    It's all pretty much tin-foil hat material, although I like to dust mine off on occasion too.