The fallacy of gun law’s effects on violent crime.

Discussion in 'Legal and Activism' started by Vincine, Apr 20, 2012.

  1. Vincine

    Vincine New Member

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    The FBI’s 2010 state homicide rates indicate NYS gun crime rate is just about average.
    The New York rate per 100k population is 2.64. The USA rate per 100k population is 2.84.

    Both Florida and Vermont have low firearm restrictions. Florida has a high rate of firearm homicides and Vermont has the lowest.

    Both DC and Hawaii have high firearm restrictions.
    DC has the highest rate of firearm homicides while Hawaii is among the lowest.

    There doesn’t seem to be any correlation between gun laws and gun violence that I could find. There does seem to be a correlation between population density and homicides. Rural areas have low rates and urban areas have high rates regardless the level of firearm restrictions.

    As for the decrease in crime generally since 1991, I believe that has more to do with demographics than anything else. There aren’t that many 63 year olds, with artificial hips, reading glasses, and whatnot, attempting armed robbery. Many of the crack heads have either managed to come clean, or died.

    The link to the data table is here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AonYZs4MzlZbdGhycDRPQlN1dTBoMzJWOTk0Uk9DRVE&hl=en#gid=9
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2012
  2. dog2000tj

    dog2000tj New Member

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    Living in urban centers is an abomination of human nature - but most choose to do so and end up behaving like rats :(
     

  3. wjnfirearms

    wjnfirearms New Member

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    To say that the amount of gun restrictions is the only way to judge the amount of firearm related crime is like saying that you can judge a piece of steak just by it's color. There are more factors that must be taken into consideration. Population, urban areas, drug activity, gang activity, etc. all have to be taken into the mix.

    Florida has a large immigrant population, much gang activity, and a very active drug corridor. Vermont has none of these directly in comparison. DC has a very high low income population and Hawaii has a large tourist population which means a much greater rate of policing. Apples and oranges.

    I hate these statistics. They never accurately show the reasons why they are what they are.
     
  4. c3shooter

    c3shooter Administrator Staff Member

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    Think it was Mark Twain that said "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
     
  5. 4tsmith

    4tsmith New Member

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    When people talk about Hawaii,they are usually really talking about the island of Oahu.or Honolulu.(as tourists or off islanders that is their perception of Hawaii in general.) Each island in the chain has a slightly different gun or anti-gun culture,much as you would in various states or areas within a state in the lower 48.
    My lady and lived in the islands for over 25 years,my 20 year old daughter was born there and in fact has a Hawaiian middle name.I lived there for a grand total of about 28 years.
    It's a solid guarantee that if you try to generalize about gun control or firearms crime in Hawaii,your theories are likely to crash and burn in very short order.There are some things however that are clear or fairly well known.The following examples might be in order:

    1) Before statehood the former queen had stated publicly that she didn't think "her SUBJECTS needed to own firearms" and only the police would need firearms to enforce the law.Of course that attitude spilled over into statehood and several generations of Hawaiians have a natural sense that guns are bad or abnormal.Since the turn of the last century the bulk of the firearms culture has been shotguns or long guns for hunting wild pigs.

    2) Any firearm that enters the island must be registered within 10 days.A failure to do so I believe is a automatic class 2 felony.

    3) The media,political and legislative attacks on firearms ownership is RELENTLESS.The permitting process is particularly onerous and a permit to purchase has a time limit of ten days even for a person to person transfer. If you fail to use the permit on time tough luck,no renewal,you start from scratch.(when we left in 2001 they were trying to put through a law to require your COMPLETE medical record to be submitted for the permit.In effect some snot nosed non-medically qualified clerk in the cop shop could disqualify you for virtually any reason.)

    4) The police force are mostly locals and they know every inch of their patrol sectors.Profiling is not a theory,it is an operational certainty.I was very tight with a patrolman for years and had seen his "character file",a three ring binder containing the picture,stats,habits and arrest history of any hooker,homeless person,trouble maker or character of interest on his beat.I was in his file simply because I was employed as a locksmith.can you imagine being a bad guy and flying under the radar for even a brief period of time.

    5) If you're a nasty felon where are you going to hide? You're on an island in the Pacific and if you plan to flee interstate you'd going to need a trans-ocean sailboat or a trunk full of great disguises and fake ID's just to sneak through the airport.Of course you're not likely to survive the gossip mill of the "Coconut Hotline" long enough to get out of your driveway without at least ten people knowing who what when where and how.
    The whole law and order and crime scene is so different there I'm not even sure it follows the 95% rule and that's almost as certain as the sunrise.:(
     
  6. Vincine

    Vincine New Member

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    Thanks for the details. Sounds like Hawaii does have high firearm restrictions. Also sounds like Hawaii is a giant 'small town'. The low crime rate is because there's nowhere to hide?
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2012
  7. bkt

    bkt New Member

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    Well, sure. Violent crime is perpetrated by people not things, and laws only restrict those inclined to obey them. What needs to be looked at is the taboo subject of urban subculture.

    The smart people who claim to care very deeply about "gun crime" would be looking at social drivers rather than firearms if they really cared. But like I said, it's taboo to point out the folks living in poor urban areas tend to be uneducated and unemployable and very dependent on the government. From an outsider's perspective, it sure seems to me that a whole lot of very popular rap encourages extramarital sex, rape and other violence. It sure seems that politicians and other degenerates reinforce the idea of "societal oppression" rather than individual responsibility thus perpetually keeping these people poor and stupid.

    This isn't done out of ignorance and stupidity on the part of do-gooders. It is done deliberately.
     
  8. Vincine

    Vincine New Member

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    I don’t know that its taboo so much, although it is that, as much as it’s difficult to address. It’s just easier to restrict firearms, a concrete thing, than it is to change social mores and attitudes, an abstraction.

    Firearm restriction's primary purpose seems to be society's evidence to itself that it is doing something, instead of nothing. That their effectiveness is questionable is beside the point. Society confuses ‘effort’ with ‘result’. Sort of like the person looking for the keys they dropped under the street light, instead of around the corner where they dropped them because the light under the street light is better.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2012
  9. Ranger-6

    Ranger-6 New Member

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    Guns have nothing to do with crime, population, or statistics; it's all about communist conquer and control of the United States. If the communist can disarm the citizens they can control them. Little by little, bit by bit, they are succeeding.

    Now,they have a person in power who can make it happen, and the ironic thing about it is the American people voted him into office.

    Rep. Allen West claimed he “heard” that up to 80 House Democrats are Communist Party members. If that be true then there's at least 80 million in the United States providing cover and concealment for them. Who be you?
     
  10. bkt

    bkt New Member

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    I hear what you're saying, but the urban mess we have today didn't just happen; it was engineered.
     
  11. 4tsmith

    4tsmith New Member

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    It's been written in stone for the last sixty years that the Justice dept. and FBI have published statistics.
    The magic number is 95. Approximately;......

    95% of all violent crimes are committed by repeat offenders

    Approximately 95% of them will be out on bail,parole,probation or early release when they commit the crime.(a scarily disproportionate number of them are plead down to a lower charge to clear the courts calender)

    Over half will re-offend within 30 days of release on one of the four categories.Forty five percent will re-offend within one year of release.
    Of the balance of 5% that do not re-offend about 2% are first time offenders the remaining 3% simply disappear and are believed to have died,left the country or assumed a false identity.

    Almost the entire 95% will re-commit to a more violent or higher class of crime.
     
  12. c3shooter

    c3shooter Administrator Staff Member

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    What 4Tsmith said about Hawaii is dead on. I visited Hawaii on a regular basis for work for 15 years. People get to know you, and word spreads FAST.

    4T- by any chance do you know Mel Chung? Gunsmith over on Molokai?
     
  13. JTJ

    JTJ Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Tests with lab rats have shown that if you control population density you can control the violence rate. Lots of room and the rats get along. Crowd the rats and they get violent. High density population centers have more violence than low density population centers. Since the population is still growing, crowding is only going to get worse. This does not even begin to cover religious and ethnic differences which can cause even more violence.
     
  14. Shade

    Shade New Member

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    Actually there is a great deal of data and models on the generally lower
    crime and homocide rates since 1990 and they have been linked to the
    legalizing of abortion.

    General Discussion of Levitt's hypothesis.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

    Backlash of Levitt's Theory.
    http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm

    Scientists have it relatively easy v. economists.
    We can run multiple experiments where we can hold all but one variable
    constant and see the effects; we can then develop clear and concise
    desciptions of the "laws" that control our physical universe.

    F=ma or E=mc^2.

    (I am glad I am a scientist and not an economist.)

    The Economist has to try to model the ever changing fabric that is our
    society and its interactions. He has no ablility to rerun an experiment.
    He cannot turn back the clock and turn the tables on Roe v. Wade. And
    test his model to see if abortion was made illegal in the early 70's would
    have crime continue to increase. Or was Leavitt completely wrong?
    Or do his critics have an agenda that Leavitt derails?

    I do not want to turn this thread into an abortion discussion but to
    bring awareness that seemingly unrelated activities possibly 20 years
    in the making can and do effect outcomes in unexpected ways.

    On a side note: I read Freakonomics back in 2005 after the rebuttal of
    Leavitt's hypothesis. Also at the time I read much of the critical material
    of Leavitt's work. In general, it is my opinion he got most of his model
    right, you cannot account for possible every variable, but I do think he
    did include the key variables.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2012
  15. 4tsmith

    4tsmith New Member

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    From long years in Kalifornica and Hawaii I had the chance to observe the social aspects of a looser abortion prone social culture.
    IMPO,Abortion is one of numerous aspects in an ever diminishing moral climate in general,and most certainly a lowering of value on human life.

    Although I am not locked into a uber narrow right to life position I still find it difficult to view abortion as having a major crime lowering effect particularly when viewed from the impact on personal values.(I've known too many women of college age that later suffered a sense of guilt or shame,depression and sense of loss from the what if of a different decision outcome)

    IMPO:A much greater weight on cause and effect could be placed on factors like the break down of nuclear families,an increase of one parent families,the loss of long term relationships resulting from a much increased mobility,a lowered community cohesion resulting from the increase in short term habitation of ever increasing suburban sprawl,damage by a decreasing value of education,a lowering of the belief in self reliance and personal responsibility...on and on..etc...etc...

    There is little that is not part of a well engineered construction of socialist intent started with Wilson,run rampant under Roosevelt and off the hook from JFK on.
    If the punishment doesn't fit the crime,the crimes will continue to exceed the value of the repercussions.

    Welcome to the concept of the immediate value added of self defense for the purpose of mediating the outcome of the event with a forceful and convincing alternate point of view.:D
     
  16. Vincine

    Vincine New Member

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    This^^^

    Nice post.
     
  17. silverado113

    silverado113 New Member

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    I grew up in an impoverished "suburb" of Miami where drugs, prostitution, and violent crimes were an everyday thing and IMO it's the people. If they have the mentality that I can't do anything with my life except sling drugs or whatever then the crime rate is going to continue to be high. It's only gotten worse in my home town because people in that area just don't care about doing the right things or working hard to get ahead. A lot of people I grew up with are either in jail, dead, or living off of the government assistance. Why? Because that's what people do in their opinion. It's how they grew up, it's what they were taught by parents, etc. I think a lot of crime has to do with a frame of mind. I sense of hopelessness to get ahead along with laziness (as in making easy money) and a lack of morality. Of course you have your people that just aren't hitting on all cylinders, but I think they only account for a small percentage of crime in general. As for guns deterring crime I think they do. Why? When I lived in Charlotte we had a bunch of apartments that were broke into. I posted a sign on my front door that said, "trespassers will be shot and survivors will be shot again", needless to say I was the only apartment in my building that didn't get hit. So I think it deters.
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2012
  18. mudpupp

    mudpupp New Member

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    Mark this choir as preached too!!!
     
  19. 4tsmith

    4tsmith New Member

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    If you take a cautious look at our history since the 50's you can find an almost direct correlation to increased government resulting in a decreased quality of social construction.
    In the early 50's half the boys in my second grade class carried a pen knife in their pocket,after all by six or seven aren't you supposed to understand most of the primary rules of social behavior.It was deemed an act of cowardice to use a weapon in a fair fight.
    Does that mean that some Polly Anna,Leave It To Beaver point of view was at play:Hell No!!! It just means that most of the knife laws were more likely came from Hollywood switchblade movie hysteria than actual events.
    If I were dragged in off the playground and into the principles office(and I was) with a bloody nose and torn shirt,and my nemesis,a head taller,30 poundg heavier next grader was in the nurses office with a broken nose and a three inch head gash from bouncing off a drinking fountain or the corner of a brick wall (and he did both),it is likely that for several reasons he would be in much more trouble than I.The reason?,real world logic.
    a) The principle understood the use of equal or greater reasonable force to defend against a violent predator.
    b) He understood that my dad had probably taught me enough vet derived hand to hand tactics to stop my dinky little self from coming home whining about some bully.
    c) It was a near certainty that he didn't want to explain to my dad why a defense couldn't be mounted against a much larger assailant.
    d) It was more certain that the at first outraged parents of the second party were cautioned that if their son the somewhat notorious bully didn't cease playing with dynamite,they shouldn't be surprised if yet another deceptively small stick of dynamite didn't blow up in his face.
    Whats the point?
    In the 2012 domain of the new rules of higher education,the principle,vice principle,school psychologist,boys activities counselor,grief counselor,the school nurse and her union rep.,the contractor supplied violence policy advocate,the school attorney,a gender,racially balanced,gay rights qualified panel of six teacher/advisory representatives and the witness from the maintenance quality control and standards group(the janitor that cleaned and preserved the deadly blood evidence) and other HIGHLY PAID state,federal,and city workers (too numerous to mention) all gather to decide the fate of the violators of the ZERO TOLERANCE policies.
    Of course justice is swift because the parents and attorney's for the injured party point out that no small children have come forward to testify that the VICTIM(the alleged bully)has ever,was,is now or ever will be a disruptive influence on the continuity of the zero policy requirements and shouldn't be made to suffer ongoing mental distress in fear of being stalked by a violent assailant.(a variation of the OJ defense)And that any and all records of his involvement should be sealed so as not to influence the future college prospects of this bright and wonderful child.( the parents and attorney of course stress the point that his fathers political influence,pending donation of four acres of land for the school athletic department and his mothers position on the school board and third generation of the Womens League and founders committee should in no way bias the the outcome)
    The assailant is deemed to have an irrational fear of large people,a tendency to act out in expressions of violent rage against innocent bystanders alleged to be involved in unproven acts of bullyism.(ebonic derivative) The convicted perpetrator will receive anger management counseling during a lengthy suspension and placed in a group home pending the outcome of an exhaustive investigation of child abuse at the hands of right wing extremest Republican leaning parents who would council their child that ANY FORM of SELF DEFENSE is EVER REASONABLE in a PROPERLY CONTROLLED SOCIETY.
    The authorities are quick to point out that the offender was wearing a sword shaped golden cross under his shirt.This is a concealed weapons device known by authorities to be used in frequent attacks on LEGITIMATE CITIZENS by militia,s and other illiterate religious fanatics in an ongoing attempt to attack citizens who support the NEW COMMON SENSE CONSTITUTION and the enlightened vision of our GLORIOUS LEADERS and congress is advised to pass the presidents plan to register or ban all such devices.
    Caution...Some of the previous is in part a parody of known REAL events and events not too distant in the future.