SHTF levels 1 to 5

Discussion in 'Survival & Sustenance Living Forum' started by Marthor, Aug 19, 2012.

  1. Marthor

    Marthor New Member

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    This would be an interesting analysis to develop levels of SHTF...

    Level 1 is an economic depression or a large area natural disaster. Eurozone breakup. Stock market crash.

    Level 2 is something we haven't seen recently and needs to be worldwide. A deadly plague, WW III (conventional), A food shortage that hungers over 1 billion more people, an energy shortage that turns off power for 1st world countries for extended periods of time (not rolling blackouts or temporary), many governments fall simultaneously

    Level 3 is doomsday level stuff. Local nuclear exchange. A massive sun flare that wipes out satellites and electricity worldwide. Collapse of world trade. At least a billion dead in a year.

    Level 4 is human race survival SHTF ...zombie apocalypse, alien invasion, Noah's worldwide flood, dinosaur meteor, ice age with glaciers down to Mexico. Multi-Billions dead if not everybody.


    This topic deserves more thought than a couple minutes. I think doomsday preppers should come up with a standard level one to five levels. That would be useful to a lot of people! Then after defining the levels you can identify what sort of preps you need to do to be prepared for that level.
     
  2. trip286

    trip286 New Member

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    Wait, I thought the whole idea of calling it "**** Hit The Fan" is because a lesser problem just doesn't cut it?

    **** Hit The Fan is exactly that. It's the "oh ****. We're just gonna have to survive" moment.
     

  3. Marthor

    Marthor New Member

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    That's the general usage of the term, but there are obviously worse SHTF situations than others and a wide variety of different scenarios.

    Yeah, I'm ready for SHTF... you've got a nuclear hardened underground shelter with 5 years of food and water? No. Oh, you're a Level 2. What do I need to be level 4 ready? You need...
     
  4. Vincine

    Vincine New Member

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    An interesting idea. Level descriptions based on event effects might be more ‘useful’ than level descriptions based on just what the events themselves are.

    For example:
    xx% of the population without the means to support themselves (for whatever reason);
    Breakdown of the financial infrastructure (hyperinflation, fiat currency collapse, etc.);
    Breakdown of basic necessities distribution (food, fuel, medicine, water, power, etc.);
    Breakdown of communication infrastructure (broadcast, cable, networks, etc.);
    Breakdown of accepted social order, rule of law (rioting, bandits, etc.);

    Maybe the level is determined by a point system by what the failure is and how extensive it is.

    You might even extend the levels to the compensation activities communities will be putting in place. Citing the rise of local: communication networks, local & community supported farms, markets & currency, etc.

    Maybe it's a minus (breakdown) / plus (compensation) scale like a launch/mission countdown.

    I betcha a scale like this already exists somewhere.
     
  5. Gone_South

    Gone_South New Member

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    If those are 1-4 out of 5 I'm scared to ask what 5 is.
     
  6. Marthor

    Marthor New Member

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    That was just a first stab at defining levels of SHTF. 5 would be nice, but it doesn't have to be 5. Whatever makes sense.
     
  7. Gone_South

    Gone_South New Member

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    I was just picking at you. Looks like 4 on your list has about the worst case possible. I'm sure it could be worse but I think it would be hard to imagine.
     
  8. Vincine

    Vincine New Member

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    I just did a little googling and 5 levels seem to be what has been used most. What I found was about businesses, data loss, hospital disasters, etc. Not any comprehensive community wide scale.
     
  9. Axxe55

    Axxe55 The Apocalypse Is Coming.....

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    level 5 is when one very large asteroid hits earth, then it simply doesn't exist anymore!:eek:
     
  10. TLuker

    TLuker Active Member

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    I think classifying events by level of severity is a great idea. The only thing I would really change in the list is to make #1 a localized event such as Katrina:

    Level 1: Localized natural or economic disaster i.e. Katrina or the rust belt.

    Level 2 is a national economic depression or a large area natural disaster. Eurozone breakup, Stock market crash, National Pandemic, national economic collapse.

    Level 3 is something we haven't seen recently and needs to be worldwide. A deadly plague, WW III (conventional), A food shortage that hungers over 1 billion more people, an energy shortage that turns off power for 1st world countries for extended periods of time (not rolling blackouts or temporary), many governments fall simultaneously

    Level 4 is doomsday level stuff. Local nuclear exchange. A massive sun flare that wipes out satellites and electricity worldwide. Collapse of world trade. At least a billion dead in a year.

    Level 5 is human race survival SHTF ...zombie apocalypse, alien invasion, Noah's worldwide flood, dinosaur meteor, ice age with glaciers down to Mexico. Multi-Billions dead if not everybody.


    What I like about having the levels categorized is it makes planning easier.

    A good plan A for a level 1 event would be to leave the area. That plan would include having a place to go.

    Level 2 would require a plan for leaving the country. At the moment I'm thinking such a plan could have benefited a lot of Jews just before WWII.

    For Level 3 there might not be anywhere to go so it would require a different approach than level 1 or 2. (bug in or out?)

    Level 4 and you're probably going to need a bunker and maybe a boat?

    Level 5 and your best bet is probably going to prayer, bullets, and an ark.

    Not much need for a level 6? :)
     
  11. c3shooter

    c3shooter Administrator Staff Member

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    Level 5 is when any of levels 1-4 affect ME.
     
  12. Dillinger

    Dillinger New Member

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    LOL - Best description yet. :)
     
  13. Vincine

    Vincine New Member

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    Tragedy is when Level 5 affects me. Comedy is when Level 5 affects someone else.
     
  14. trip286

    trip286 New Member

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    Double post
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2012
  15. trip286

    trip286 New Member

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    Preferably my ex. Or your ex (I assume you have one? Don't know much about you obviously... ;) ) or winds' ex. ALL THREE TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME!! The epitome of epicness.
     
  16. bkt

    bkt New Member

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    SHTF means SHTF. So you can have varying levels of scope for SHTF.

    1. Personal SHTF: both you and your spouse lose your jobs, or there's a serious medical emergency, or the death of a loved one (particularly a breadwinner), or a fire/tornado/whatever destroys your home.

    2. Localized SHTF: ice storm knocks out power in your area (say a county or three in size). Stores are not operating. Traveling is difficult due to downed trees and power lines. Natural gas works, but furnace fans are down. Landline phones are down and cell phone service is very spotty. Water is iffy. (This one happened to me back in 1991.)

    3. Regional SHTF: Much larger storm event - eg. hurricane - affecting large portion of a state or states taking out power and shutting down utilities while trashing homes and businesses. Being able to get immediate care or help impossible. Epidemic is another potential cause.

    4. National SHTF: Series of terror attacks result in many areas without power or other utilities. Travel is restricted. Communications are down. Or, economic situation results in either entitlement program cuts or the inflation of the dollar to the point where entitlement hand-outs won't buy what people need resulting in severe and widespread civil unrest and violence, mostly limited to big cities. This results in the markets closing and many businesses being directly or indirectly impacted and the cascading effect causes just about everyone to feel pain. Pandemic is another potential cause.

    5. Global SHTF: World War III with nuclear weapons, or an entire collapse of the world's economy (see above about riots), or some cataclysmic natural event (Yellowstone pops its lid or an asteroid parks on Siberia). Short and long term food production and distribution shut down. Water, power, fuel, everything is shut down indefinitely.



    For the person in the middle of the event, the S has really HTF. The lower the scope of the problem, the faster others will be able to come to your aid and get you back to normal. In a personal or localized SHTF, having a supply of food and a way to heat your home for a matter of weeks or months will help defray costs or keep you comfortable. A regional SHTF will test your ability to know when to bug out (assuming there's any warning) and your ability to store what you need securely. It will also test your ability to think on your feet: if your home has been wiped out and all your supplies are gone, what knowledge do you have in your head at that moment to begin getting things back together? A global SHTF pretty much means all bets are off, but having an independent means of communication, transportation, arms, food, water, medical and other supplies and the ability to meet up with others who you trust and who are similarly prepared and have experience, training and knowledge to work in a bad situation wouldn't hurt.

    EDIT: Other things to think about: prepping works only when your preps haven't been destroyed and when you're able to get to them when the SHTF. But no matter what, the most important thing to have in every situation is the ability to rationally and calmly assess the situation and have the knowledge to know how to react and what to do.

    You can't really say "Oh, you have six months of preps. You're at level X." What if those preps get destroyed or stolen or you're 500 miles away from them when the SHTF? Having two years of food won't keep you happy for long if the infrastructure - roads, power, supermarkets, etc. - won't come back up for five years and you don't know how to grow food, hunt or fish.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2012
  17. c3shooter

    c3shooter Administrator Staff Member

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    All good points. It has been said it is comedy when the OTHER guy's pants are on fire- tragedy when it's YOUR pants!
     
  18. Vincine

    Vincine New Member

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    I guess we had a Level 3 up here during the Ice Storm of ’98. Didn’t that reach down into Rochester?
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2012
  19. TLuker

    TLuker Active Member

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    You could never predict how things would go if SHTF no matter what level, but you can have plans in place for different levels.

    It would be good to have a plan to leave the country in case of a natural catastrophe or political one on a national level. Honestly, I've never thought about leaving the country until this thread, but it would be good to have a plan in place for a national event. Again, I can't help but to think about the Jews in Germany before WWII. I can't image that happening, but I'm sure they couldn't either and that's why such plans need to be in place.

    A plan to leave the country wouldn't be necessary for a localized disaster, but you might have to leave your region (if possible). Katrina is an obvious example of that, but there are also not so obvious situations in which it would be a good idea to leave. I'm sure Detroit was a nice place to live at one time. I'm also sure that there are a lot of seniors stuck there now that wish they had left back when they could have actually sold their homes. That is an example of a localized economic disaster that some people could have avoided. That's also a mess that any of us could end up in if we aren't paying attention to what's going on.

    Classifying events, at least for me, seems to be helpful. Once you identify the scale of an event(s) you better react to it. :)
     
  20. Gone_South

    Gone_South New Member

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    One huge difference about leaving the country (USA) and Germany or other European countries during or before WWII is geography. For us in the states you have two options that don't require air or boat travel and one those options don't look good. Also the sheer area possibly needed to travel. Say FL to Canada. In Europe countries tend to be the size of states here.