Peak Oil and Exponential Growth

Discussion in 'Survival & Sustenance Living Forum' started by partdeux, Feb 15, 2012.

  1. partdeux

    partdeux Well-Known Member

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  2. bkt

    bkt New Member

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    No offense to you, partdeux, but I made it about a third of the way through that video before I started retching. It's long on ideological rhetoric and short on facts and logic. Just the title - THERE IS NO TOMORROW - is arguably a mite glum.

    Here's the deal. Peak Oil is generally defined as the time at which production and demand meet in a given locale. This unquestionably IS happening right now in places. But that is not the same as saying half of all oil is consumed and we only have another 80 years or so before there isn't a drop left for anyone.

    Chris Martenson does an outstanding job explaining this, growth, exponential curves, and other things in his Crash Course. Situations change and we must and will adapt to them.

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
     

  3. partdeux

    partdeux Well-Known Member

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    Chris Martenson does an EXCELLENT job of presenting the SAME information. BUT, many people glaze over trying to watch it. This 30 min video that had you retching, while it was a bit long on rhetoric, still has the same message. We are literally running out of oil, each barrel takes more energy to retrieve, is harder to find, and we need more of it. It also puts forth the exact same discussion on exponential growth.
     
  4. downsouth

    downsouth New Member

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    Keystone pipeline anybody? I know it won't cure the problem, but why turn it down? Politics
     
  5. partdeux

    partdeux Well-Known Member

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    Follow the money... always follow the money.

    If not a pipeline, how to move the oil. Rail would probably be a solution. Hmm, who owns a rail line that might be in a position to transport the oil? Anyone? Follow the money.

    Having said that, the problem with tar sand oil, is it's extremely difficult to get the oil out. We're going after the difficult to get oil now. The easy to get stuff is all gone. We burn a barrel of oil and only retrieve between 3 & 10 barrels where it used to be 100:1. The retrieval curve is also exponential, but turned upside down. We're on the steep slope down.

    The video spent a lot of time looking at alternatives, but we have not found a viable alternative to oil.
     
  6. Durangokid

    Durangokid New Member

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    Oil is not harder to find. The cost of exploration and production has been pushed up by lawyers and Enviro groups. During the Clinton years "Stripper" were shut in on all public lands. This was a loss of 30% of U.S. production. Under Obama getting permits to drill has been impossible. We are shutting in Natural Gas wells and plants. We have miles of tar sands and shale. China, Germany, France and England are buying up American leases. China and Russia are drilling off the U.S. coast line. Our President will not allow Americans to use their own oil. Americans are afraid of risk period. They will shiver and freeze in the dark as other nations use our mineral wealth.:confused:
     
  7. bkt

    bkt New Member

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    I think it's fair to say that demand (consumption) is meeting production worldwide, or it's getting too close for comfort. That obviously means some things need to change. Either we need to increase production or reduce consumption. It is getting increasingly difficult to find new deposits, but there are still an awful lot of known fields we haven't tapped into due to artificial barriers put in place by politicians.

    Growth is a big issue. As India and China get closer to first-world status, their demand for fuel will increase exponentially, making it impossible to serve the world's demand.

    This really is a serious issue we need to work through.

    As for people whose eyes glaze over while listening to Martenson's Crash Course...what can you say about them? When the words "the next 25 years will be nothing like the last 25 years" don't inspire people to pay attention, they get what they deserve.
     
  8. bkt

    bkt New Member

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    And money. Warren Buffett owns a train line that brings in oil and gas in that region and the pipeline would effectively shut that down or at least seriously impact his line. Obama torpedoed the pipeline as a favor to his buddy Warren.
     
  9. bkt

    bkt New Member

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    Yup, that's true. Oil isn't as easy to find as it once was, but it's still out there and we can find it. Getting to it is the trick. Not because of technical hurdles but because of politicians blocking access.
     
  10. damocles

    damocles New Member

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    How much is that oil worth to you? Would you rather have cheap oil and contaminated well water and orange, flammable rivers; or clean air and water, natural resources you can enjoy and pass on, with alternative energy sources?
     
  11. downsouth

    downsouth New Member

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    At some point alternative enery will be the way. You like wind? Your envirimentalist friends put a stop to that.
    http://www.akdart.com/enviro12.html
     
  12. partdeux

    partdeux Well-Known Member

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    Following normal growth curves, demand would be much higher... but thanks to production topping out, demand growth is being checked by higher costs. Free market economy at it's finest.

    WRT reserves, we peaked out at finding the maximum amount of oil 4 decades ago. New oil field finds have been down to virtually nothing.

    WRT to shale and/or sand oil, the financial cost recovery has only recently been viable as oil hangs around $100 a barrel. Anything less then that costs more money. The ecological impact is still being determined, but I can't imagine any possible way that we won't have future impacts from pumping all these dangerous chemicals into the ground. Plus we are taking water from the surface and sending it underground, all for the purpose of oil. there may come a time when we'll wish we still had that fresh water.
     
  13. bkt

    bkt New Member

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    You imply oil can't be obtained without damaging the environment seriously. You're wrong.

    As for AE, I'm all for it. There is no alternative to oil right now. Ethanol isn't it. I'd be happy to use an alternative if one were available.
     
  14. Durangokid

    Durangokid New Member

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    Damacles, Why has Big Oil producing states like Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, Colorado Etc. have the best rivers? This are has been producing going back to the 1870s. States like New York Conn. etc have the most poisoned rivers. These are not oil states. Yes every time any thing happens in an oil field the Enviros scream Doom. Why not attack everyone who flushes a toliet?
     
  15. partdeux

    partdeux Well-Known Member

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    Not implying anything. Shale oil require high temperature water and solvents to be pumped into the ground under pressure. There have been several identified issues with this seeping into the water table, so yea, it's an issue.
     
  16. Durangokid

    Durangokid New Member

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    Americans at one time knew risk were a part of life. This sprirt has been replaced by what ifs. Before social cowardice and government dependent groupies we were a powerful nation. If our forefathers were not risk takers we would be a small wellfare state on the east coast. Obama is protecting the railroad owned by his pal Warren Buffett. So no pipeline from Canada. We know a pipeline is safer than a railroad. The Greens take the bait and protect the socialist elite. The Greens repeat the socialist hate the rich and damn progress. Countries like China move ahead. They are planning a pipe line to the west coast of Canada and buy the oil we need. Americans fret over legal dope, Gay marriage, open borders endangered frogs and the nations of the world pass us by.:rolleyes:
     
  17. Vikingdad

    Vikingdad New Member

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  18. Durangokid

    Durangokid New Member

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    The Penn State is once more on the energy Frontier. Shallow Hole Methane Coal bed gas is emerging.:)
     
  19. Vikingdad

    Vikingdad New Member

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    Nice. And how are their rivers and streams? From what I know about the early oil wells in PA the stuff is leaking out of the Earth and we would do the Earth a big favor to tap it off and prevent it from spilling into the ocean:D.
     
  20. erikthebald

    erikthebald New Member

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    Sure, blame the environmentalists. I mean let's face it, all they want is to make sure that what remains of our natural world isn't completely raped by the capitalists. I'm always a little shocked to see this kind of attitude from someone who would fight for their second amendment rights. Where will we shoot? Where will we hunt, if the environment takes second place to profit.

    Maybe you just don't care as long as it's someone else's back yard. More oil is not the answer and anyone with even the meanest intelligence level should be able to grasp that.