I am not an alarmist but.... about the outbreak

Discussion in 'The Club House' started by bluez, Jan 25, 2020.

  1. bluez

    bluez Well-Known Member

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    I seem to recall when I started this thread some were openly mocking as me a fear monger...
     
  2. jigs-n-fixture

    jigs-n-fixture Well-Known Member Lifetime Supporter

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    Talked to a friend, who is an epidemiologist. She thinks that best case scenario, 75 to 85% of Americana will contract it over the next 12-months. That is roughly 260,000,000 people.

    From the CDC as of yesterday: This first preliminary description of outcomes among patients with COVID-19 in the United States indicates that fatality was highest in persons aged ≥85, ranging from 10% to 27%, followed by 3% to 11% among persons aged 65–84 years, 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, <1% among persons aged 20–54 years, and no fatalities among persons aged ≤19 years.

    If you use 2% mortality for the overall population, that is going to be around 5,280,000 people.

    The shelter in place, keep your distance policies are intended only to flatten out the curve, so the hospitals don’t get inundated. And, maybe if were really lucky, they may figure out better treatment regimes, or develop a vaccine.
     
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  3. Mercator

    Mercator Well-Known Member

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    I predicted Russia invades Ukraine. Where is my statue :)

    Look, if you worry about everything, you will be right now and then. Not you personally, I don’t know you. Someone. In the end it makes no difference. This is just talk. And I for one did not mock you. But the trophy is yours :)
     
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  4. JimRau

    JimRau Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Yesterday the Assist SG said he predicted early on that if we actually knew the 'denominator' in the fraction of 'deaths' it would be very close to that of the flu. It is 1.7 per K WITH THE LIMITED DATA WE HAVE TODAY. And there are MANY people who have it or who have had it that are not shown in the 'denominator'. He, and I agree, that only about 1 in 10, or less, of the actual cases are reported. So the actual rate of death is LESS THAN 1.7 per K. It could FAR LESS than that if even more of us are infected than he estimates. Just some truth to help dampen the PANIC/EMOTION which is causing more damage to this country than the virus could ever cause. :(
     
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  5. Pasquanel

    Pasquanel Proud to be an American Supporter

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    REMEMBER AS YOU WATCH THIS VIDEO THAT IT WAS A “PRACTICE” EVENT HELD IN OCTOBER 2019!!!!



    Something is very wrong and I believe we have been set up!
     
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  6. Mercator

    Mercator Well-Known Member

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    The Surgeon General is a doctor from Indiana, Mike Pence’s protege. People who know him say he is a solid honest guy.

    Jim Rau is correct. The common denominator in press reports is the number of people diagnosed. It is probably a fraction of the number of people infected, which is unknown, especially in the People’s Republic. Korea reports lower mortality at least in part because of the widespread testing. To me it doesn’t matter a whole lot, I keep doing my part like all good citizens. Someone will get the numbers right some day.
     
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  7. manta

    manta Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Exactly for those that are saying it can not be contained they are missing the point. That is not what they are trying to do, they are trying to buy more time so hospitals etc can be better papered. The are also trying to stop the most at risk from catching it as they are likely to need hospital treatment with ventilators etc, and there are not enough of them to go around. My wife for example who is in the at risk group, got a letter today advising her not to leave the house for 3 months.
     
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  8. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    Malarky. Anyone who believes this simply is ignoring the glaring facts. The "flu" doesn't over-run hospitals and require intensive care over-night. This pandemic is just getting started and big cities around the world are getting absolutely hammered with cases to the point of overwhelming healthcare. All non-essential services canceled for the near future, running low on PPE, exhausted or infected/quarantined workers. In a busy NYC ER, they are double their ER daily visits. One doctor said more 911 calls than on 9/11/01. Sirens non-stop all day and night. Another ER doctor there said they had to get a meat locker cooler semi-trailer to stack bodies. The flu doesn't do any of this ...
     
  9. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    Yes, the denominator is only a fraction. But the numerator is also under-reported. If we don't have enough tests to test the living, we aren't and haven't been testing all the dead who died in January, February, and March. This isn't theory, it's fact. Italy has widely acknowledged they aren't testing all their dead and those are under-reported numbers. Some areas have skyrocketed deaths but no tests so not added as COVID deaths. I'm highly confident that with limited and expensive tests and overwhelmed healthcare, a death statistic is of lesser importance than using a limited test on a living person for treatment purposes. These tests are expensive, in short supply, and absolutely being rationed. I have a friend in the military and he had symptoms. They would not administer a test at his local hospital until he revealed he was in the non-active duty branch of the military, and they required his ID and then reluctantly used one of their few tests.
     
  10. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    I will also add that while we don't know the denominator or how many actually recovered, of those serious enough to test in the US, Italy, Spain, etc. about 1/2 are recovering and the other 1/2 are dying... That is a bad OUTCOME.
     
  11. winds-of-change

    winds-of-change The Balota's Staff Member Admin Moderator Lifetime Supporter

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    Exactly.

    What a dumb witch.
    We are each responsible for ourselves.
     
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  12. Bigcountry02

    Bigcountry02 Coffee! If your not shaking, you need another cup Supporter

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    You have a run on food, paper goods, health supplies, cleaning supplies, guns and ammo. Add to the soon run on Tobacco products!

    Philip Morris USA suspending operations after 2nd employee tests positive for COVID-19

     
  13. alsaqr

    alsaqr Well-Known Member Supporter

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  14. jacinda

    jacinda New Member

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    I think Corona virus has completely destroyed the world order
     
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  15. Ghost1958

    Ghost1958 Well-Known Member

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    I am so relieved to have an expert on the board on a until now non existant human virus.

    Now that I know the world is ending as we know it I can stop fretting about it and just go dig my own grave :confused:
     
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  16. JimRau

    JimRau Well-Known Member Supporter

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    The flu don't over run hospitals because we are not ALL going crazy with it. It kills tens of thousands a year here so there will be more flu cases admitted than CV, BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED NORMAL for the flu. Emotion cause logic and judgment to go out the window.
     
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  17. Ghost1958

    Ghost1958 Well-Known Member

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    The only sane voice in this mess was Thomas Massie.

    Probably earned himself a presidentency sometime in the near future.

    Our gov has gone insane trying to act as if it is in control when it could never have gained control of an act of nature.
     
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  18. manta

    manta Well-Known Member Supporter

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    This is on top of the normal flu, there are vaccines that keep it under control. They do not have enough ventilators etc for the seasonal flu plus the corona virus. But maybe the governments doctors and experts worldwide the DTC etc are all wrong, and you are right.

    What do you think we should do, the people that this virus will most likely kill. Tell family and friends that are at risk, just get on with it you are just being emotion and lacking in judgement.
     
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  19. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    This level of total ignorance in the face of reality is the same ignorant attitude that killed nearly 700,000 Americans and tens of millions of humans between 1918-1919. "It's just the flu...". The levels of human stupidity are staggering. Simply staggering.