I am not an alarmist but.... about the outbreak

Discussion in 'The Club House' started by bluez, Jan 25, 2020.

  1. Gatoragn

    Gatoragn Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Approximately 51 million people in the RSA, California alone probably has that many if the illegals are counted.
     
  2. Oldoutlaw

    Oldoutlaw Well-Known Member Supporter

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  3. JTJ

    JTJ Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Simple explanation for young people is not listening to the warnings.
     
  4. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    Worse than that. The young people listened to the moron adults who mislead them into trivializing this dangerous virus.
     
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  5. Gatoragn

    Gatoragn Well-Known Member Supporter

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    What behaviors were they engaging in prior to contracting the virus? Large group parties? Spring break crowds on a beach?
     
  6. alsaqr

    alsaqr Well-Known Member Supporter

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    At the very least the Chinese have greatly diminished the spread of coronavirus.

    Meanwhile back in America, Louisiana had a 40 percent increase in deaths in one day.
     
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  7. Mercator

    Mercator Well-Known Member

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    Percentages are good for headlines and politics. Seven cases are 40% increase from five. I don’t know the real numbers, but the point is, the Chinese had a massive outbreak the size of which we may never know. Then they greatly diminished the spread. We are still ascending the curve.
     
  8. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    I felt it should be helpful to explain to others about exponential math, R-naught and so forth. I'm not an expert, but have some math background and have seen it explained really well.

    For starters, it's widely known that the "flu" has a R-naught (rate of spread) of about 1.3. That means every person who has it will give it to 1.3 others. Cornoa virus is thought to be at least R3 (and as high as R6), so for every person they will give it to at least 3 others.

    This little snip of a video explained it really well. And you can work this out on a spreadsheet if you don't believe the math.

    Open up Excel and punch this formula into one block:
    =(3*3*3*3*3*3*3*3*3*3)

    And this into another:
    =(1.3*1.3*1.3*1.3*1.3*1.3*1.3*1.3*1.3*1.3)

    If you get the normal flu with an R1.3 and pass it along and it goes thru 10 iterations, you're responsible for 14 infected people. If you get corona-virus with an R3 and pass it along and it goes thru 10 iterations, you have infected 59,049 people.

     
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  9. alsaqr

    alsaqr Well-Known Member Supporter

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  10. Oldoutlaw

    Oldoutlaw Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Both! Returning students from SB are returning some now. In the areas like mine, the University towns are beginning to blow up with cases now. Even our small college towns also.
     
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  11. Oldoutlaw

    Oldoutlaw Well-Known Member Supporter

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    In Iowa, we went from one death to three in one day. Small so far, but is expected to accelerate now.
     
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  12. Oldoutlaw

    Oldoutlaw Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Exactly. In the Midwest, it has only begun in last week.
     
  13. Rentacop

    Rentacop Well-Known Member

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    I appears that Louisiana's big mistake was allowing Mardi Gras to go on as planned . That may account for that state's high rate of infection .
    FDA has relaxed the approval process for test kits ( Good ! ) . If we had pure capitalism per Ayn Rand, we'd have no artificial shortages of medical supplies .
     
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  14. Mercator

    Mercator Well-Known Member

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    We tend to be too quick to point fingers. There is only one guilty party beyond doubt, the chicoms. The young people don't listen, oh yeah, when did they ever. They are not what gets you killed dudes I guarantee you.
     
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  15. Gatoragn

    Gatoragn Well-Known Member Supporter

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    if you believe the ChiComs, I would like to sell you some oceanfront property in Arizona.
     
  16. Ghost1958

    Ghost1958 Well-Known Member

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    You do realize there are folks on this forum trained to very high levels of haz mat response and biological threat containment.? And are aware of what is possible to contain a national biological threat such as this and what is not possible?
    The kind of folks that tell you and your townsfolk when to leave home and when if ever you may come back?
     
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  17. Mercator

    Mercator Well-Known Member

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    I try usually not to make people watch videos but as an exception look at this instruction video from Wuhan. Note the airy, spotless facility and the abundance of equipment. The stamp in the corner says Xingwa. That’s the Chinese government information agency. China has no free press to verify or challenge it. This is a sophisticated propaganda piece. Watch.
     
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  18. Rentacop

    Rentacop Well-Known Member

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    If you read the whole article, there is no evidence that her remarks were the reason she was fired . I hope FOX Business believes in freedom of speech .
    In any case, they should issue a rebuttal if they think a commentator has made irresponsible statements .
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
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  19. Rentacop

    Rentacop Well-Known Member

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    That's MY PRESIDENT you are talking about ! LOL . It was Rush Limbaugh who likened it to " the common cold " . But young people don't believe anything Trump says and they never listen to Limbaugh's program so who told them, " Don't worry. Be happy ? "
     
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  20. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    I'm a Republican Trump voter and will vote Trump in 2020. I normally follow all the GOP talking heads. But I can be intellectually honest and say most of them just totally dropped the ball on this and it was bad and will be painful to watch the election commercials. I cringed so many times... In fairness, no Democrat past or present candidate would have been better and many probably worse.