I am not an alarmist but.... about the outbreak

Discussion in 'The Club House' started by bluez, Jan 25, 2020.

  1. Mister Dave

    Mister Dave Well-Known Member

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    48 pages to go...... Bet you can get to a hundred opinions. :)

    Which is why a trip to the LGS yesterday didn't bother me. We spent probably less than 15 minutes there. I already knew what I wanted and where it was. I did spend a few minutes chatting and joking with my new friend the store manager.

    He keeps slipping me free range passes. Nice, even if the range is closed right now.

    We were also out for a battery for the thermometer or a whole new one. That was a fail.
     
    winds-of-change likes this.
  2. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    Interesting but mistaken belief. So far the virus has directly killed at least 25,500, and probably realistically increase that by a factor of 10 with all the not-tested or concealed deaths. But the floor is 25,500.

    According to you our "mismanagement" will kill off a significant faction of the human race. If by "mismanagement" you mean the people who are slow to understand this is severe, I agree. It has directly resulted in spread of illness, over run hospitals and supplies, people too stupid to self isolate so the government has to force them, etc. If by "mismanagement" you seem to mean people going into quarantine and some businesses shutting, then that has so far killed zero reported people, and won't kill anyone. People will go thru hardships, have to take less vacations to Disney World, and it will reduce the number of multi-millionaires in the US. Tragic, I know. But humans will survive minor hardships and losses in the stock market.

    So, once again, a really misinformed post has been challenged and shown to be out of touch with reality.

    Current scoreboard: Virus 25,500+ and growing exponentially with no end in sight.
    People at home on their couch: Zero deaths. Probably saving lives with no traffic accidents.
     
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  3. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    Option 1: This will fully collapse our medical system which already operates on thin margins and roughly 80%+ capacity in normal times. Allowing a highly contagious disease that is shown to put about 15-20% into hospital quarantine long term, and about 5% on serious medical care, will rapidly overwhelm our healthcare. This is not a theoretical concern. In the first week of the outbreak in NYC, cities in Italy, and cities in Spain, this is proving to be the case. Otherwise save-able patients are dying due to lack of any sufficient care.

    The secondary and tertiary effects are devastating and include a lot of categories of non-covid patients who would die of otherwise survivable medical ailments like car accidents, sports injuries, sepsis, heart attacks, diabetes, blood clots, strokes, falls, gun shot wounds, stab wounds, cancer, spider bites, etc. We would also lose thru attrition, illness, death, a lot of healthcare workers already losing morale, and we would fail to recruit and gain more thru hiring. The death toll of this would be measured in tens of millions over several years while this virus "burns thru" the population because it takes years for such things to happen. And since it's a new virus, maybe we don't develop immunity or maybe it mutates and goes thru the population for decades, killing a hundred million people with a lot of collateral damage.

    The only reason to try Option 1 is to try to salvage the economy. It's a big gamble and we'd probably collapse the economy along with healthcare regardless.

    The better option is a maximum realistic quarantine period, along with a transition to everyone wearing masks in public to lessen the burden on healthcare while slowly returning to work in a few weeks so we can restart our economy.
     
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  4. alsaqr

    alsaqr Well-Known Member Supporter

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    In fighting coronavirus China and South Korea had it all over the US. Those countries have one centralized government. Folks who refused to go along with self quarantine are chunked into prison. The US has 51 governments, many of which are doing their own thing in fighting this virus. Indeed some are doing little or nothing. Very little testing is being accomplished. This may be deliberate, without testing no one will ever know the extent of casualties.

    South Korea and Germany have depended on testing to slow the spread of the virus. South Korea a is manufacturing oodles of test kits. Why don't the US simply buy the test kits from Korea, you may ask? Answer: They ain't been approved by the all powerful FDA which takes many months to evaluate and approve such stuff.

    The latest epicenter is Louisiana, especially New Orleans. New Orleans is a very cruddy place surrounded by swamps and filth that are conducive to the spread of this disease. Many folks are going about their business as usual. Many churches are holding services.

    Why in hades can't US companies develop test kits that work on short notice? A South Korean company had a test kit ready for testing by 5 February. On 12 February the Korean equivalent of the FDA had approved the test kit.

    Each kit can test 100 patients.



    https://localnews8.com/news/2020/03...created-coronavirus-test-kits-in-three-weeks/
     
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  5. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    China has about the same number of people in Hubai (60 million) as all of Italy has total population (60 million), and Wuhan (11 million) is bigger than any Italy (2 million in Rome) or US city (8 million in NYC). Spain's population is 47 million and largest city is Madrid with 2.6 million.

    The US population is 25% that of China's, and NYC is smaller than Wuhan. We don't even have a single state with the population of Hubai. California is closest with 40 million. Not even close to the size of Hubai. Yet, the US now has more "confirmed" cases in 2 months than China did in 4?

    And Italy and Spain have more confirmed deaths in 1 month than China had in 4, and the first 2 months nobody was much tracking this.

    Obviously the Chinese totally fabricated their numbers of infected and dead. They were running incinerators day and night for weeks. There's ample circumstantial evidence that millions of people "disappeared" from January to February.

    If you study the infection rate curves, you'll see that Italy, Spain, and the US completely downplayed this for a tragic several weeks and we have spiked infection rates and deaths. We have shown to be foolish rookies at this, to my dismay.

    Contrast that with S. Korea, Japan, and some other Asian locations with credible testing and they have very low infection rates because of aggressive measures like immediate use of masks, social distancing, quarantine, and testing. They are veterans at this.
     
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  6. Mister Dave

    Mister Dave Well-Known Member

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  7. alsaqr

    alsaqr Well-Known Member Supporter

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    leadcounsel likes this.
  8. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    The corona isn't just for old people. I've been seeing growing reports in the US and abroad of otherwise very healthy young people including teens and twenties getting it and dying. Saw several reports today, and have seen many reports in the last week or two. People MUST dispel the belief this just gets the old and sick.
     
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  9. hairbear1

    hairbear1 Well-Known Member

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    You do know what the definition of an "expert" is don't you?

    "X"......... is an unknown factor,
    "SPURT". is a drip under pressure:)
     
  10. Mercator

    Mercator Well-Known Member

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    Mister Dave likes this.
  11. leadcounsel

    leadcounsel Active Member

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    I've not seen or read a serious person in a panic or suggesting a panic.

    I've seen two basic sides.

    Those like me who have for weeks prudently warning, suggesting taking defensive measures, and preparing for this to be really bad. So far, my philosophy has been essentially spot on and has or would have resulted in less death, chaos, market losses, etc.

    Then I see the totally inept irresponsible morons who started with and remained in the "just the flu" camp. That has resulted in wider spread, more death, overwhelmed hospitals, totally ill prepared individuals, a crashed stock market, a $4.5 trillion bailout, and mandatory quarantines because people are simply too stupid to not keep spreading this. All of the unpreparedness has now lead to actual panic by those told to not prepare and just "wash your hands and don't panic." Italy, the US, Spain, all just out flying around, partying, licking door knobs, blowing this off - now paying a very heavy toll in death and ruin. Rich with irony, isn't it?
     
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  12. towboater

    towboater Well-Known Member

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    I know of no door knob lickers here.
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
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  13. Oldoutlaw

    Oldoutlaw Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I have been seeing the same. I look at the large increase in cases here in Iowa. Heaviest infestation is in places where there is a University or smaller college.
     
  14. Oldoutlaw

    Oldoutlaw Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Don't bet your boat on it.
     
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  15. hairbear1

    hairbear1 Well-Known Member

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    Generally the panic ridden city based window lickers who know nothing of what happens outside the coffee shops and malls but will take on what actors, politicians and the media say is true.
     
  16. Gatoragn

    Gatoragn Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Or

    Ex = has been
    Spurt = drip under pressure
     
  17. Ghost1958

    Ghost1958 Well-Known Member

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    Wow. In all sincerity you remind me of Kareem Abdul jabbar ringing his bell screaming about the dark man and to bring out your dead in the movie The Stand.
    Been dreaming of cornfields and mother Abigail?
     
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  18. Gatoragn

    Gatoragn Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I believe this was by design by the folks that wrote the COTUS. I see it as a benefit, and thank The Good Lord regularly that the USA does not have only one centralized government.
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
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  19. JTJ

    JTJ Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I have read a lot of opinions on wearing masks. If it feels good do it. Like chicken soup, even if it does not work it makes you feel better. If it does work you are ahead. I had to go to the lgs yesterday to pick up a check. Door was open and they had a girl disinfecting everything. I dont know how good it is for the finish but they wiped a gun if they showed it. Not many people in there. The drive through at the bank was open. I wiped down the canister when I picked it up and again when it came back. Also wiped my license and card before it went back in my wallet. I have a limited supply of masks. I will probably use one when I go to the doctor next week. It seems a strip of cloth wrapped several times around your head would seal better and be a decent filter. Throw it in the laundry or a bucket of disinfectant. You could make a bunch from an old sheet. We walk a couple times a day and talk to the neighbors. Everybody is keeping distance. Wife got out the steamer and cleaned pretty much everything.
     
  20. Mercator

    Mercator Well-Known Member

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    You cannot know how China had it, unless you believe the chicoms. As for South Korea, it is a small wealthy nation-state. Different scale.
     
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