This is what I wrote before.. elsewhere: (I am not a medical doctor but am (among other things) a Biologist and during the Ebola outbreak I predicted the Epidemiology successfully, ie. that it would not fizzle right away in West Africa but that it would never jump over to US in any epidemic way and that it would not become a pandemic ) "All, Ill attempt to have a nuanced conversation on this (which is always hard to do via email) They have nearly 10 times as many folks die due to traffic accidents in a single day as what they reported so far in deaths from this disease for the month.They also have on average over the year ten times as many flu deaths, per day (!), as so far has been reported for 2019-nCov Based on history this wouldn't worry their Gov't at all. So I feel the words (what they tell WHO in data) and the actions (quarantines of major cities) do not match up. Sure people will say, they always underreport and we expect that.. but anecdotal evidence (reports from families which had a death from this disease that was recorded as something else, etc) suggest more significant underreporting than expected. Keeping in mind that what the Chinese Gov't is doing is very very EXPENSIVE both in money and in political capital. These quarantines will cost them tens of billions of dollars, if they keep them up for any significant lengthy amount time they might actually affect Chinas GDP for the year in a measurable way. This is something that leadership cares about. Also the Chinese lunar new year which is tomorrow, ....it is by far the most major holiday in the country. It is Christmas and New Year's rolled together. Tens of Millions of workers travel during this time to see their families and it is for some folks the only chance they go back home during the entire year. So for the Chinese Govt' to enact these travel bans this week imposes a significant political cost on them as well. No national gov't has ever attempted quarantines this large before and until this week this had all been the realm of fiction. According to one report by last night they were quarantining 8 cities, up from 3 yesterday during the day and up from "only" one yesterday morning (all times central European). So the point I am making is; the tiny numbers (18 deaths as of last night, with an overwhelming %age elderly and/or immunocompromised) that they have reported to WHO, do not seem support this huge response... when using previous responses by the Chinese Gov't (or any Gov't really) as a yardstick. There could a benign explanation to this... it could simply be that they remember how they had lots of egg on their face last time with SARS where they reacted too little too late and it spread to 37 countries out of China and the Chinese gov't was bitterly criticized even in Asia for its feeble response.. and perhaps they wish to "make up" for this. A less benign explanation might be that they know something we, as yet, don’t... and so that this explains their uncharacteristically heavy response. In the next few months we will find out which is the correct explanation.. I for one, am curious." Here is the social media leak I been looking for. I been watching these guys for years and consider them a good nuanced source. I am not an alarmist in any way... and not saying The walking dead is about to break out... But its enough that my personal radar is up a bit and I am going to buy groceries right now after I push "save"