I am not an alarmist but.... about the outbreak

Discussion in 'The Club House' started by bluez, Jan 25, 2020.

  1. bluez

    bluez Well-Known Member

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    This is what I wrote before.. elsewhere:
    (I am not a medical doctor but am (among other things) a Biologist and during the Ebola outbreak I predicted the Epidemiology successfully, ie. that it would not fizzle right away in West Africa but that it would never jump over to US in any epidemic way and that it would not become a pandemic )

    "All,

    Ill attempt to have a nuanced conversation on this (which is always hard to do via email)

    They have nearly 10 times as many folks die due to traffic accidents in a single day as what they reported so far in deaths from this disease for the month.They also have on average over the year ten times as many flu deaths, per day (!), as so far has been reported for 2019-nCov

    Based on history this wouldn't worry their Gov't at all.

    So I feel the words (what they tell WHO in data) and the actions (quarantines of major cities) do not match up.

    Sure people will say, they always underreport and we expect that.. but anecdotal evidence (reports from families which had a death from this disease that was recorded as something else, etc) suggest more significant underreporting than expected.

    Keeping in mind that what the Chinese Gov't is doing is very very EXPENSIVE both in money and in political capital. These quarantines will cost them tens of billions of dollars, if they keep them up for any significant lengthy amount time they might actually affect Chinas GDP for the year in a measurable way.

    This is something that leadership cares about.

    Also the Chinese lunar new year which is tomorrow, ....it is by far the most major holiday in the country. It is Christmas and New Year's rolled together. Tens of Millions of workers travel during this time to see their families and it is for some folks the only chance they go back home during the entire year.

    So for the Chinese Govt' to enact these travel bans this week imposes a significant political cost on them as well.

    No national gov't has ever attempted quarantines this large before and until this week this had all been the realm of fiction.

    According to one report by last night they were quarantining 8 cities, up from 3 yesterday during the day and up from "only" one yesterday morning (all times central European).

    So the point I am making is; the tiny numbers (18 deaths as of last night, with an overwhelming %age elderly and/or immunocompromised) that they have reported to WHO, do not seem support this huge response... when using previous responses by the Chinese Gov't (or any Gov't really) as a yardstick.

    There could a benign explanation to this... it could simply be that they remember how they had lots of egg on their face last time with SARS where they reacted too little too late and it spread to 37 countries out of China and the Chinese gov't was bitterly criticized even in Asia for its feeble response.. and perhaps they wish to "make up" for this.

    A less benign explanation might be that they know something we, as yet, don’t... and so that this explains their uncharacteristically heavy response.

    In the next few months we will find out which is the correct explanation.. I for one, am curious."


    Here is the social media leak I been looking for. I been watching these guys for years and consider them a good nuanced source.



    I am not an alarmist in any way... and not saying The walking dead is about to break out...
    But its enough that my personal radar is up a bit and I am going to buy groceries right now after I push "save"
     
  2. locutus

    locutus Well-Known Member Supporter

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    If we got alarmed at every "outbreak" we would have to start walking around with a bottle or Purell in our shirt pocket like Sheldon Cooper!:p
     

  3. W.T. Sherman

    W.T. Sherman Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG] so true


    I am not an alarmist in any way... ………... I am going to buy groceries right now after I push "save"

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  4. JTJ

    JTJ Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I see a lot of people, especially women that walk around with a bottle of hand sanitizer and use it right after shaking hands. Look around you in church.
    Bluez is right. The response is way too much for what they are announcing. Something is not being reported. Isolation measures taken here with the few diagnosed patients also seems extreme and the CDC is scrambling. Look at the Spanish Flu.
    The Spanish Flu infected 500 million people and killed an estimated 10% of them. 675,000 Americans died. It was named the Spanish Flu because Spain was the 1st nation to sound the alarm. It did not originate there. One theory is it started in China and was brought out by the 140,000 Chinese laborers that the French and British recruited in 1917 to free up soldiers.
     
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  5. locutus

    locutus Well-Known Member Supporter

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    At one time, I thought that GMS, aka AIDS, was going to solve the homo problem once and for all.:eek:

    And lotsa pholks seem to think that flouridation of water and vaccinations will destroy the human race.
    (Ask Alex:p)
     
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  6. TimKS

    TimKS Well-Known Member Lifetime Supporter

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  7. jigs-n-fixture

    jigs-n-fixture Well-Known Member Lifetime Supporter

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    This is serious. And, I don’t trust the Chinese politicians as far as I trust ours, and I know ours are bought and paid for doggy doodoo. My guess is they aren’t giving us any data from inside the badly effected areas, and only reporting things from outside the quarantine zones.
     
  8. JimRau

    JimRau Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I saw where the mortally rate for this was .03%. If my math is right that is 3 per 10,000. And they also said the the primary 'victims/deaths' were those with compromised immune systems. But as we all know it is about $$$$$! Sensationalize it to get ratings!!!:(
     
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  9. bluez

    bluez Well-Known Member

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    But if this was accruate the CHinese Govt (which has the best data) would never spend tens of billions and endanger their GDP for the year the way they have done.

    I told eveyrone who would listen during the peak of the Ebola outbreak its not a big deal.
    Now that social media leaks are painting a very different pic than what the chinese Gov't publishes I think we have the right to be concerned.
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2020
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  10. Ghost1958

    Ghost1958 Well-Known Member

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    I dont trust anything coming from any gov source until its independently verified.

    That said until the Corona virus is hitting here in significant numbers I'm not taking any more precautions than I normally do because of the wifes cancer treatments.

    And yep that means using hand sanitizer constantly.
     
  11. microadventure

    microadventure Well-Known Member

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    only when he's ten feet tall.
     
  12. SGWGunsmith

    SGWGunsmith Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I just hope when I drop over out on the street somewhere from one of these diseases, that I have "clean" underwear on.
     
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  13. ellis36

    ellis36 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    If that happens, the chances of your clean underwear staying clean is about zero. :)

    ellis
     
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  14. formerCav

    formerCav Well-Known Member

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    oh yeah, eating bats (China) and defecating in the streets (San FranSicko) is somehow supposed to be good for you ???
     
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  15. TimKS

    TimKS Well-Known Member Lifetime Supporter

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    The Chinese are NOT only bat sh1t crazy...they're bat sh1t dead.
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2020
  16. bluez

    bluez Well-Known Member

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  17. W.T. Sherman

    W.T. Sherman Well-Known Member

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    some people are taking the corona virus in stride

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  18. schnuffleupagus

    schnuffleupagus Well-Known Member

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    We lose more than 80,000/ year to the flu in the USA
     
  19. Shopfox

    Shopfox Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Not to be contentious, but your math is off. The mortality rate has been in the 3% range, not 0.03%. From the get-go, I'd been tracking the number of deaths and the number of cases to get a feel for its lethality.
     
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  20. Shopfox

    Shopfox Well-Known Member Supporter

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    This was from about an hour ago: 56 deaths and 2,000 cases = 2.8%

    That said, the number of actual cases is a lot higher than the reported cases, so the 3% is probably too high - but I'm doubtful it's a factor of 100 too high. Screenshot_20200125-233206_Chrome.jpg
     
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