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The fallacy of gun lawís effects on violent crime.


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Old 04-22-2012, 03:41 PM   #11
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I donít know that its taboo so much, although it is that, as much as itís difficult to address. Itís just easier to restrict firearms, a concrete thing, than it is to change social mores and attitudes, an abstraction.
I hear what you're saying, but the urban mess we have today didn't just happen; it was engineered.
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Old 04-22-2012, 03:49 PM   #12
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It's been written in stone for the last sixty years that the Justice dept. and FBI have published statistics.
The magic number is 95. Approximately;......

95% of all violent crimes are committed by repeat offenders

Approximately 95% of them will be out on bail,parole,probation or early release when they commit the crime.(a scarily disproportionate number of them are plead down to a lower charge to clear the courts calender)

Over half will re-offend within 30 days of release on one of the four categories.Forty five percent will re-offend within one year of release.
Of the balance of 5% that do not re-offend about 2% are first time offenders the remaining 3% simply disappear and are believed to have died,left the country or assumed a false identity.

Almost the entire 95% will re-commit to a more violent or higher class of crime.
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Old 04-22-2012, 04:17 PM   #13
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What 4Tsmith said about Hawaii is dead on. I visited Hawaii on a regular basis for work for 15 years. People get to know you, and word spreads FAST.

4T- by any chance do you know Mel Chung? Gunsmith over on Molokai?
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Old 04-22-2012, 04:46 PM   #14
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Tests with lab rats have shown that if you control population density you can control the violence rate. Lots of room and the rats get along. Crowd the rats and they get violent. High density population centers have more violence than low density population centers. Since the population is still growing, crowding is only going to get worse. This does not even begin to cover religious and ethnic differences which can cause even more violence.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:01 PM   #15
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As for the decrease in crime generally since 1991, I believe that has more to do with demographics than anything else. There aren’t that many 63 year olds, with artificial hips, reading glasses, and whatnot, attempting armed robbery. Many of the crack heads have either managed to come clean, or died.
Actually there is a great deal of data and models on the generally lower
crime and homocide rates since 1990 and they have been linked to the
legalizing of abortion.

General Discussion of Levitt's hypothesis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

Backlash of Levitt's Theory.
http://www.isteve.com/abortion.htm

Scientists have it relatively easy v. economists.
We can run multiple experiments where we can hold all but one variable
constant and see the effects; we can then develop clear and concise
desciptions of the "laws" that control our physical universe.

F=ma or E=mc^2.

(I am glad I am a scientist and not an economist.)

The Economist has to try to model the ever changing fabric that is our
society and its interactions. He has no ablility to rerun an experiment.
He cannot turn back the clock and turn the tables on Roe v. Wade. And
test his model to see if abortion was made illegal in the early 70's would
have crime continue to increase. Or was Leavitt completely wrong?
Or do his critics have an agenda that Leavitt derails?

I do not want to turn this thread into an abortion discussion but to
bring awareness that seemingly unrelated activities possibly 20 years
in the making can and do effect outcomes in unexpected ways.

On a side note: I read Freakonomics back in 2005 after the rebuttal of
Leavitt's hypothesis. Also at the time I read much of the critical material
of Leavitt's work. In general, it is my opinion he got most of his model
right, you cannot account for possible every variable, but I do think he
did include the key variables.
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Old 04-23-2012, 06:54 AM   #16
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From long years in Kalifornica and Hawaii I had the chance to observe the social aspects of a looser abortion prone social culture.
IMPO,Abortion is one of numerous aspects in an ever diminishing moral climate in general,and most certainly a lowering of value on human life.

Although I am not locked into a uber narrow right to life position I still find it difficult to view abortion as having a major crime lowering effect particularly when viewed from the impact on personal values.(I've known too many women of college age that later suffered a sense of guilt or shame,depression and sense of loss from the what if of a different decision outcome)

IMPO:A much greater weight on cause and effect could be placed on factors like the break down of nuclear families,an increase of one parent families,the loss of long term relationships resulting from a much increased mobility,a lowered community cohesion resulting from the increase in short term habitation of ever increasing suburban sprawl,damage by a decreasing value of education,a lowering of the belief in self reliance and personal responsibility...on and on..etc...etc...

There is little that is not part of a well engineered construction of socialist intent started with Wilson,run rampant under Roosevelt and off the hook from JFK on.
If the punishment doesn't fit the crime,the crimes will continue to exceed the value of the repercussions.

Welcome to the concept of the immediate value added of self defense for the purpose of mediating the outcome of the event with a forceful and convincing alternate point of view.
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Old 04-23-2012, 12:45 PM   #17
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. . . IMPO:A much greater weight on cause and effect could be placed on factors like the break down of nuclear families,an increase of one parent families,the loss of long term relationships resulting from a much increased mobility,a lowered community cohesion resulting from the increase in short term habitation of ever increasing suburban sprawl,damage by a decreasing value of education,a lowering of the belief in self reliance and personal responsibility...on and on..etc...etc...
This^^^

Nice post.
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Old 04-23-2012, 03:58 PM   #18
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I grew up in an impoverished "suburb" of Miami where drugs, prostitution, and violent crimes were an everyday thing and IMO it's the people. If they have the mentality that I can't do anything with my life except sling drugs or whatever then the crime rate is going to continue to be high. It's only gotten worse in my home town because people in that area just don't care about doing the right things or working hard to get ahead. A lot of people I grew up with are either in jail, dead, or living off of the government assistance. Why? Because that's what people do in their opinion. It's how they grew up, it's what they were taught by parents, etc. I think a lot of crime has to do with a frame of mind. I sense of hopelessness to get ahead along with laziness (as in making easy money) and a lack of morality. Of course you have your people that just aren't hitting on all cylinders, but I think they only account for a small percentage of crime in general. As for guns deterring crime I think they do. Why? When I lived in Charlotte we had a bunch of apartments that were broke into. I posted a sign on my front door that said, "trespassers will be shot and survivors will be shot again", needless to say I was the only apartment in my building that didn't get hit. So I think it deters.
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Old 04-23-2012, 04:10 PM   #19
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Mark this choir as preached too!!!
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Old 04-24-2012, 07:34 PM   #20
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If you take a cautious look at our history since the 50's you can find an almost direct correlation to increased government resulting in a decreased quality of social construction.
In the early 50's half the boys in my second grade class carried a pen knife in their pocket,after all by six or seven aren't you supposed to understand most of the primary rules of social behavior.It was deemed an act of cowardice to use a weapon in a fair fight.
Does that mean that some Polly Anna,Leave It To Beaver point of view was at play:Hell No!!! It just means that most of the knife laws were more likely came from Hollywood switchblade movie hysteria than actual events.
If I were dragged in off the playground and into the principles office(and I was) with a bloody nose and torn shirt,and my nemesis,a head taller,30 poundg heavier next grader was in the nurses office with a broken nose and a three inch head gash from bouncing off a drinking fountain or the corner of a brick wall (and he did both),it is likely that for several reasons he would be in much more trouble than I.The reason?,real world logic.
a) The principle understood the use of equal or greater reasonable force to defend against a violent predator.
b) He understood that my dad had probably taught me enough vet derived hand to hand tactics to stop my dinky little self from coming home whining about some bully.
c) It was a near certainty that he didn't want to explain to my dad why a defense couldn't be mounted against a much larger assailant.
d) It was more certain that the at first outraged parents of the second party were cautioned that if their son the somewhat notorious bully didn't cease playing with dynamite,they shouldn't be surprised if yet another deceptively small stick of dynamite didn't blow up in his face.
Whats the point?
In the 2012 domain of the new rules of higher education,the principle,vice principle,school psychologist,boys activities counselor,grief counselor,the school nurse and her union rep.,the contractor supplied violence policy advocate,the school attorney,a gender,racially balanced,gay rights qualified panel of six teacher/advisory representatives and the witness from the maintenance quality control and standards group(the janitor that cleaned and preserved the deadly blood evidence) and other HIGHLY PAID state,federal,and city workers (too numerous to mention) all gather to decide the fate of the violators of the ZERO TOLERANCE policies.
Of course justice is swift because the parents and attorney's for the injured party point out that no small children have come forward to testify that the VICTIM(the alleged bully)has ever,was,is now or ever will be a disruptive influence on the continuity of the zero policy requirements and shouldn't be made to suffer ongoing mental distress in fear of being stalked by a violent assailant.(a variation of the OJ defense)And that any and all records of his involvement should be sealed so as not to influence the future college prospects of this bright and wonderful child.( the parents and attorney of course stress the point that his fathers political influence,pending donation of four acres of land for the school athletic department and his mothers position on the school board and third generation of the Womens League and founders committee should in no way bias the the outcome)
The assailant is deemed to have an irrational fear of large people,a tendency to act out in expressions of violent rage against innocent bystanders alleged to be involved in unproven acts of bullyism.(ebonic derivative) The convicted perpetrator will receive anger management counseling during a lengthy suspension and placed in a group home pending the outcome of an exhaustive investigation of child abuse at the hands of right wing extremest Republican leaning parents who would council their child that ANY FORM of SELF DEFENSE is EVER REASONABLE in a PROPERLY CONTROLLED SOCIETY.
The authorities are quick to point out that the offender was wearing a sword shaped golden cross under his shirt.This is a concealed weapons device known by authorities to be used in frequent attacks on LEGITIMATE CITIZENS by militia,s and other illiterate religious fanatics in an ongoing attempt to attack citizens who support the NEW COMMON SENSE CONSTITUTION and the enlightened vision of our GLORIOUS LEADERS and congress is advised to pass the presidents plan to register or ban all such devices.
Caution...Some of the previous is in part a parody of known REAL events and events not too distant in the future.
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