The fallacy of gun law’s effects on violent crime.
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Old 04-20-2012, 06:32 PM   #1
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Default The fallacy of gun law’s effects on violent crime.

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Originally Posted by JohnJak View Post
I'm sure they [NYS] have the lowest gun crimes with their harsh gun laws.
The FBI’s 2010 state homicide rates indicate NYS gun crime rate is just about average.
The New York rate per 100k population is 2.64. The USA rate per 100k population is 2.84.

Both Florida and Vermont have low firearm restrictions. Florida has a high rate of firearm homicides and Vermont has the lowest.

Both DC and Hawaii have high firearm restrictions.
DC has the highest rate of firearm homicides while Hawaii is among the lowest.

There doesn’t seem to be any correlation between gun laws and gun violence that I could find. There does seem to be a correlation between population density and homicides. Rural areas have low rates and urban areas have high rates regardless the level of firearm restrictions.

As for the decrease in crime generally since 1991, I believe that has more to do with demographics than anything else. There aren’t that many 63 year olds, with artificial hips, reading glasses, and whatnot, attempting armed robbery. Many of the crack heads have either managed to come clean, or died.

The link to the data table is here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AonYZs4MzlZbdGhycDRPQlN1dTBoMzJWOTk0Uk9DR VE&hl=en#gid=9
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Old 04-20-2012, 07:04 PM   #2
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Living in urban centers is an abomination of human nature - but most choose to do so and end up behaving like rats

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Old 04-20-2012, 07:28 PM   #3
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To say that the amount of gun restrictions is the only way to judge the amount of firearm related crime is like saying that you can judge a piece of steak just by it's color. There are more factors that must be taken into consideration. Population, urban areas, drug activity, gang activity, etc. all have to be taken into the mix.

Florida has a large immigrant population, much gang activity, and a very active drug corridor. Vermont has none of these directly in comparison. DC has a very high low income population and Hawaii has a large tourist population which means a much greater rate of policing. Apples and oranges.

I hate these statistics. They never accurately show the reasons why they are what they are.

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Old 04-21-2012, 12:45 AM   #4
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Heres the FBI chart.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/tables/10tbl04.xls

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Old 04-21-2012, 12:58 AM   #5
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Think it was Mark Twain that said "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

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Old 04-22-2012, 01:01 PM   #6
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When people talk about Hawaii,they are usually really talking about the island of Oahu.or Honolulu.(as tourists or off islanders that is their perception of Hawaii in general.) Each island in the chain has a slightly different gun or anti-gun culture,much as you would in various states or areas within a state in the lower 48.
My lady and lived in the islands for over 25 years,my 20 year old daughter was born there and in fact has a Hawaiian middle name.I lived there for a grand total of about 28 years.
It's a solid guarantee that if you try to generalize about gun control or firearms crime in Hawaii,your theories are likely to crash and burn in very short order.There are some things however that are clear or fairly well known.The following examples might be in order:

1) Before statehood the former queen had stated publicly that she didn't think "her SUBJECTS needed to own firearms" and only the police would need firearms to enforce the law.Of course that attitude spilled over into statehood and several generations of Hawaiians have a natural sense that guns are bad or abnormal.Since the turn of the last century the bulk of the firearms culture has been shotguns or long guns for hunting wild pigs.

2) Any firearm that enters the island must be registered within 10 days.A failure to do so I believe is a automatic class 2 felony.

3) The media,political and legislative attacks on firearms ownership is RELENTLESS.The permitting process is particularly onerous and a permit to purchase has a time limit of ten days even for a person to person transfer. If you fail to use the permit on time tough luck,no renewal,you start from scratch.(when we left in 2001 they were trying to put through a law to require your COMPLETE medical record to be submitted for the permit.In effect some snot nosed non-medically qualified clerk in the cop shop could disqualify you for virtually any reason.)

4) The police force are mostly locals and they know every inch of their patrol sectors.Profiling is not a theory,it is an operational certainty.I was very tight with a patrolman for years and had seen his "character file",a three ring binder containing the picture,stats,habits and arrest history of any hooker,homeless person,trouble maker or character of interest on his beat.I was in his file simply because I was employed as a locksmith.can you imagine being a bad guy and flying under the radar for even a brief period of time.

5) If you're a nasty felon where are you going to hide? You're on an island in the Pacific and if you plan to flee interstate you'd going to need a trans-ocean sailboat or a trunk full of great disguises and fake ID's just to sneak through the airport.Of course you're not likely to survive the gossip mill of the "Coconut Hotline" long enough to get out of your driveway without at least ten people knowing who what when where and how.
The whole law and order and crime scene is so different there I'm not even sure it follows the 95% rule and that's almost as certain as the sunrise.

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Old 04-22-2012, 01:13 PM   #7
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Thanks for the details. Sounds like Hawaii does have high firearm restrictions. Also sounds like Hawaii is a giant 'small town'. The low crime rate is because there's nowhere to hide?

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Old 04-22-2012, 01:25 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vincine View Post
There does seem to be a correlation between population density and homicides. Rural areas have low rates and urban areas have high rates regardless the level of firearm restrictions.
Well, sure. Violent crime is perpetrated by people not things, and laws only restrict those inclined to obey them. What needs to be looked at is the taboo subject of urban subculture.

The smart people who claim to care very deeply about "gun crime" would be looking at social drivers rather than firearms if they really cared. But like I said, it's taboo to point out the folks living in poor urban areas tend to be uneducated and unemployable and very dependent on the government. From an outsider's perspective, it sure seems to me that a whole lot of very popular rap encourages extramarital sex, rape and other violence. It sure seems that politicians and other degenerates reinforce the idea of "societal oppression" rather than individual responsibility thus perpetually keeping these people poor and stupid.

This isn't done out of ignorance and stupidity on the part of do-gooders. It is done deliberately.
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Old 04-22-2012, 01:46 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bkt View Post
. . What needs to be looked at is the taboo subject of urban subculture. .
I don’t know that its taboo so much, although it is that, as much as it’s difficult to address. It’s just easier to restrict firearms, a concrete thing, than it is to change social mores and attitudes, an abstraction.

Firearm restriction's primary purpose seems to be society's evidence to itself that it is doing something, instead of nothing. That their effectiveness is questionable is beside the point. Society confuses ‘effort’ with ‘result’. Sort of like the person looking for the keys they dropped under the street light, instead of around the corner where they dropped them because the light under the street light is better.
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Old 04-22-2012, 02:04 PM   #10
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Guns have nothing to do with crime, population, or statistics; it's all about communist conquer and control of the United States. If the communist can disarm the citizens they can control them. Little by little, bit by bit, they are succeeding.

Now,they have a person in power who can make it happen, and the ironic thing about it is the American people voted him into office.

Rep. Allen West claimed he “heard” that up to 80 House Democrats are Communist Party members. If that be true then there's at least 80 million in the United States providing cover and concealment for them. Who be you?

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