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Quasi 06-27-2008 01:10 PM

SHTF: War with Iran
 
I'm not saying this is a high probability, but it's certainly a possible scenario.

-Quasi

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9437


The Coming Catastrophe?
The finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iran

by David DeBatto

Global Research, June 23, 2008

Global Research Editor's note

We bring to the attention of our readers David DeBatto's scenario as to what might occur if one of the several contingency plans to attack Iran, with the participation of Israel and NATO, were to be carried out. While one may disagree with certain elements of detail of the author's text, the thrust of this analysis must be taken seriously.


"Israel has said a strike on Iran will be "unavoidable" if the Islamic regime continues to press ahead with alleged plans for building an atom-bomb." (London Daily Telegraph, 6/11/2008)
"Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany joined President Bush on Wednesday in calling for further sanctions against Iran if it does not suspend its uranium enrichment program." Mr. Bush stressed again that "all options are on the table," which would include military force. (New York Times, 6/11/2008)



We are fast approaching the final six months of the Bush administration. The quagmire in Iraq is in its sixth painful year with no real end in sight and the forgotten war in Afghanistan is well into its seventh year. The "dead enders" and other armed factions are still alive and well in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan again controls most of that country. Gas prices have now reached an average of $4.00 a gallon nationally and several analysts predict the price will rise to $5.00-$6.00 dollars per gallon at the pump by Labor Day. This, despite assurances by some major supporters of the decision to invade Iraq that the Iraq war "will pay for itself" (Paul Wolfowitz) or that we will see "$20.00 per barrel" oil prices if we invade Iraq (Rupert Murdoch).

One thing the Pentagon routinely does (and does very well) is conduct war games. Top brass there are constantly developing strategies for conducting any number of theoretical missions based on real or perceived threats to our national security or vital interests. This was also done prior to the invasion of Iraq, but the Bush administration chose not to listen to the dire warnings about that mission given to him by Pentagon leaders, or for that matter, by his own senior intelligence officials. Nevertheless, war gaming is in full swing again right now with the bullseye just to the right of our current mess Ė Iran.

Itís no secret that the U.S. is currently putting the finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iranian nuclear and military facilities. With our ground forces stretched to the breaking point in Iraq and Afghanistan, none of the most likely scenarios involve a ground invasion. Not that this administration wouldnít prefer to march into the seat of Shiite Islam behind a solid, moving line of M1 Abrams tanks and proclaim the country for democracy. The fact is that even the President knows we canít pull that off any more so he and the neo-cons will have to settle for Shock and Awe Lite.

If we invade Iran this year it will be done using hundreds of sorties by carrier based aircraft already stationed in the Persian Gulf and from land based aircraft located in Iraq and Qatar. They will strike the known nuclear facilities located in and around Tehran and the rest of the country as well as bases containing major units of the Iranian military, anti-aircraft installations and units of the Revolutionary Guard (a separate and potent Iranian para-military organization).

Will this military action stop Iranís efforts to develop nuclear weapons? Probably not. It will probably not even destroy all of their nuclear research facilities, the most sensitive of which are known to be underground, protected by tons of earth and reinforced concrete and steel designed to survive almost all attacks using conventional munitions. The Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard will most likely survive as well, although they will suffer significant casualties and major bases and command centers will undoubtedly be destroyed. However, since Iran has both a functioning Air Force, Navy (including submarines) and modern anti-aircraft capabilities, U.S. fighter-bombers will suffer casualties as well. This will not be a "Cake Walk" as with the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003 when the Iraqi Army simply melted away and the Iraqi Air Force never even launched a single aircraft.

Not even close.

If the United States attacks Iran either this summer or this fall, the American people had better be prepared for a shock that may perhaps be even greater to the national psyche (and economy) than 9/11. First of all, there will be significant U.S. casualties in the initial invasion. American jets will be shot down and the American pilots who are not killed will be taken prisoner - including female pilots. Iranian Yakhonts 26, Sunburn 22 and Exocet missiles will seek out and strike U.S. naval battle groups bottled up in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf with very deadly results. American sailors will be killed and U.S. ships will be badly damaged and perhaps sunk. We may even witness the first attack on an American Aircraft carrier since World War II.

Thatís just the opening act.

Israel (who had thus far stayed out of the fray by letting the U.S. military do the heavy lifting) is attacked by Hezbollah in a coordinated and large scale effort. Widespread and grisly casualties effectively paralyze the nation, a notion once thought impossible. Iranís newest ally in the region, Syria, then unleashes a barrage of over 200 Scud B, C and D missiles at Israel, each armed with VX gas. Since all of Israel is within range of these Russian built weapons, Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and virtually all major civilian centers and several military bases are struck, often with a result of massive casualties.

The Israeli Air Force orders all three squadrons of their F-16I Sufa fighter/bombers into the air with orders to bomb Tehran and as many military and nuclear bases as they can before they are either shot down or run out of fuel. It is a one way trip for some of these pilots. Their ancient homeland lies in ruins. Many have family that is already dead or dying. They do not wait for permission from Washington, DC or U.S. regional military commanders. The Israeli aircraft are carrying the majority of their countryís nuclear arsenal under their wings.

Just after the first waves of U.S. bombers cross into Iranian airspace, the Iranian Navy, using shore based missiles and small, fast attack craft sinks several oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, sealing off the Persian Gulf and all its oil from the rest of the world. They then mine the area, making it difficult and even deadly for American minesweepers to clear the straits. Whatever is left of the Iranian Navy and Air Force harasses our Navy as it attempts minesweeping operations. More U.S casualties.

The day after the invasion Wall Street (and to a lesser extent, Tokyo, London and Frankfurt) acts as it always does in an international crisis Ė irrational speculative and spot buying reaches fever pitch and sends the cost of oil skyrocketing. In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iran, the price of oil goes to $200.00 - $300.00 dollars a barrel on the open market. If the war is not resolved in a few weeks, that price could rise even higher. This will send the price of gasoline at the pump in this country to $8.00-$10.00 per gallon immediately and subsequently to even higher unthinkable levels.

If that happens, this country shuts down. Most Americans are not be able to afford gas to go to work. Truckers pull their big rigs to the side of the road and simply walk away. Food, medicine and other critical products are not be brought to stores. Gas and electricity (what is left of the short supply) are too expensive for most people to afford. Children, the sick and elderly die from lack of air-conditioned homes and hospitals in the summer. Children, the sick and elderly die in the winter for lack of heat. There are food riots across the country. A barter system takes the place of currency and credit as the economy dissolves and banks close or limit withdrawals. Civil unrest builds.

The police are unable to contain the violence and are themselves victims of the same crisis as the rest of the population. Civilian rule dissolves and Martial Law is declared under provisions approved under the Patriot Act. Regular U.S. Army and Marine troops patrol the streets. The federal government apparatus is moved to an unknown but secure location. The United States descends into chaos and becomes a third world country. Its time as the lone superpower is over.

It doesnít get any worse than this.

Then the first Israeli bomber drops its nuclear payload on Tehran.

David DeBatto is a former U.S. Army Counterintelligence Special Agent, Iraqi war veteran and co-author the "CI" series from Warner Books and the upcoming "Counter to Intelligence" from Praeger Security International.


Global Research Articles by David DeBatto

Dillinger 06-27-2008 04:34 PM

Well, that's a nice piece of speculation. Perhaps his new "Tell All - Behind the Scenes of Intelligence "book will be on the NY Times best sellers list - for fiction that is....:rolleyes:

Marching into Iran behind a line of M-1 Abrahms Tanks is what the administration WANTS to do? And this guy was a former US Army Counter Intel SPE-CIA-LIST?

Nice scare tactic - I don't see it happening at all, let alone even close to what Dr. Scary Bedtime Story has to say.

While an interesting enough read - I don't put a lot of credence in it.

JD

I want to amend my post - I appreciate the Author's service to the country, and the fact that he has had boots on the ground in that part of the world, no doubt, offers a unique perspective that some of us would never see. That said, the guy is a fiction writer and has been for a few years now. He makes his living selling fiction about the very stuff he has written about in the above article. I am sure the guy was a quality asset at the time he was gainfully employed with the US Military. However, this piece reads like a couple of the exerpts from his fiction line found on his website....

Quasi 06-27-2008 06:45 PM

Yeah, I just thought it was an interesting read, even though I don't give it a high probability of playing out. Although there have been a lot of market rumors in the past few weeks about plans to attack Iran (either by us or Israel) -- perhaps an additional factor in oil's amazing price run.

Boris 06-27-2008 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dillinger (Post 29476)
Well, that's a nice piece of speculation. Perhaps his new "Tell All - Behind the Scenes of Intelligence "book will be on the NY Times best sellers list - for fiction that is....:rolleyes:

Marching into Iran behind a line of M-1 Abrahms Tanks is what the administration WANTS to do? And this guy was a former US Army Counter Intel SPE-CIA-LIST?

Nice scare tactic - I don't see it happening at all, let alone even close to what Dr. Scary Bedtime Story has to say.

While an interesting enough read - I don't put a lot of credence in it.

JD

JD This is getting scary....I agree, an agreeable enough piece of fiction to while away a few hours between flights, but fiction none the less there is no consensus for military action against Iran..................Even the brightest politician can work out that when in a hole, stop digging!.......

Dillinger 06-27-2008 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boris (Post 29493)
JD This is getting scary....I agree, an agreeable enough piece of fiction to while away a few hours between flights, but fiction none the less there is no consensus for military action against Iran..................Even the brightest politician can work out that when in a hole, stop digging!.......

LOL - That's true enough Boris, but for what it's worth, we can agree to disagree on something this weekend if you like. :D

I believe you are refering to "Pits First Rule" - When you find yourself in one, stop digging. Words to live by....

I don't think anyone, except possibly the Israelis, want to take a shot into Iran right now. While they will need to be dealt with at some point, if their nuclear actions continue, now is now the time. Keep your head down and wait for trouble to find you on this one, then when it does, summon what you got and take it's f***ing head off at the neck.

JD

ScottG 06-27-2008 10:03 PM

John Bolton seems to believe Israel will attack before the next inauguration.

Dillinger 06-27-2008 10:12 PM

This is the same guy who was the representative to the UN and was part of the Committee for Peace in the Gulf, or something close to that, ( bang up job you did there by the way ).

I heard he went to work for some law firm or something - and that was, what, 2 years ago? Where's he getting his intel from? Is he back active with the UN?

JD

ScottG 06-27-2008 10:33 PM

I'm not sure JD. Bolton is The 'Stache." No one liked him because he told the truth about the UN. He's the one President Bush recess appointed because the Democrat leadership hated his support for his own country....

BTW, sent you an e-mail....

bkt 06-27-2008 11:03 PM

I lost interest and respect for the author after "The quagmire in Iraq..."

Bottom line: you fight when you need to, not just when you think you will come out of the fight unscathed. If a giant can of whoop-ass needs to be opened up on Iran and they fight back hard, so be it.

The best thing, of course, would be for the Iranians to dispense with their theocracy and resolve the problem internally. If they don't do that, the alternatives are clear and simple: do nothing and suffer the firestorm consequences, or take action and expect to get bloodied some.

(Iran is less of a concern than Pakistan and A.Q. Kahn. This piece of crap has been providing advanced nuclear weapons information to all kinds of unfriendly countries.)

Dillinger 06-27-2008 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScottG (Post 29562)
BTW, sent you an e-mail....

Got it - I hit you back. And thanks....

JD


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