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Old 08-19-2012, 03:07 PM   #1
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Default SHTF levels 1 to 5

This would be an interesting analysis to develop levels of SHTF...

Level 1 is an economic depression or a large area natural disaster. Eurozone breakup. Stock market crash.

Level 2 is something we haven't seen recently and needs to be worldwide. A deadly plague, WW III (conventional), A food shortage that hungers over 1 billion more people, an energy shortage that turns off power for 1st world countries for extended periods of time (not rolling blackouts or temporary), many governments fall simultaneously

Level 3 is doomsday level stuff. Local nuclear exchange. A massive sun flare that wipes out satellites and electricity worldwide. Collapse of world trade. At least a billion dead in a year.

Level 4 is human race survival SHTF ...zombie apocalypse, alien invasion, Noah's worldwide flood, dinosaur meteor, ice age with glaciers down to Mexico. Multi-Billions dead if not everybody.


This topic deserves more thought than a couple minutes. I think doomsday preppers should come up with a standard level one to five levels. That would be useful to a lot of people! Then after defining the levels you can identify what sort of preps you need to do to be prepared for that level.

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Old 08-19-2012, 03:41 PM   #2
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Wait, I thought the whole idea of calling it "**** Hit The Fan" is because a lesser problem just doesn't cut it?

**** Hit The Fan is exactly that. It's the "oh ****. We're just gonna have to survive" moment.

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Old 08-19-2012, 04:07 PM   #3
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That's the general usage of the term, but there are obviously worse SHTF situations than others and a wide variety of different scenarios.

Yeah, I'm ready for SHTF... you've got a nuclear hardened underground shelter with 5 years of food and water? No. Oh, you're a Level 2. What do I need to be level 4 ready? You need...

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Old 08-19-2012, 04:14 PM   #4
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An interesting idea. Level descriptions based on event effects might be more ‘useful’ than level descriptions based on just what the events themselves are.

For example:
xx% of the population without the means to support themselves (for whatever reason);
Breakdown of the financial infrastructure (hyperinflation, fiat currency collapse, etc.);
Breakdown of basic necessities distribution (food, fuel, medicine, water, power, etc.);
Breakdown of communication infrastructure (broadcast, cable, networks, etc.);
Breakdown of accepted social order, rule of law (rioting, bandits, etc.);

Maybe the level is determined by a point system by what the failure is and how extensive it is.

You might even extend the levels to the compensation activities communities will be putting in place. Citing the rise of local: communication networks, local & community supported farms, markets & currency, etc.

Maybe it's a minus (breakdown) / plus (compensation) scale like a launch/mission countdown.

I betcha a scale like this already exists somewhere.

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Old 08-19-2012, 04:19 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marthor
This would be an interesting analysis to develop levels of SHTF...

Level 1 is an economic depression or a large area natural disaster. Eurozone breakup. Stock market crash.

Level 2 is something we haven't seen recently and needs to be worldwide. A deadly plague, WW III (conventional), A food shortage that hungers over 1 billion more people, an energy shortage that turns off power for 1st world countries for extended periods of time (not rolling blackouts or temporary), many governments fall simultaneously

Level 3 is doomsday level stuff. Local nuclear exchange. A massive sun flare that wipes out satellites and electricity worldwide. Collapse of world trade. At least a billion dead in a year.

Level 4 is human race survival SHTF ...zombie apocalypse, alien invasion, Noah's worldwide flood, dinosaur meteor, ice age with glaciers down to Mexico. Multi-Billions dead if not everybody.

This topic deserves more thought than a couple minutes. I think doomsday preppers should come up with a standard level one to five levels. That would be useful to a lot of people! Then after defining the levels you can identify what sort of preps you need to do to be prepared for that level.
If those are 1-4 out of 5 I'm scared to ask what 5 is.
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Old 08-19-2012, 04:29 PM   #6
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That was just a first stab at defining levels of SHTF. 5 would be nice, but it doesn't have to be 5. Whatever makes sense.

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Old 08-19-2012, 04:35 PM   #7
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I was just picking at you. Looks like 4 on your list has about the worst case possible. I'm sure it could be worse but I think it would be hard to imagine.

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Old 08-19-2012, 04:36 PM   #8
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I just did a little googling and 5 levels seem to be what has been used most. What I found was about businesses, data loss, hospital disasters, etc. Not any comprehensive community wide scale.

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Old 08-19-2012, 05:24 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gone_South View Post
If those are 1-4 out of 5 I'm scared to ask what 5 is.
level 5 is when one very large asteroid hits earth, then it simply doesn't exist anymore!
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Old 08-19-2012, 08:55 PM   #10
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I think classifying events by level of severity is a great idea. The only thing I would really change in the list is to make #1 a localized event such as Katrina:

Level 1: Localized natural or economic disaster i.e. Katrina or the rust belt.

Level 2 is a national economic depression or a large area natural disaster. Eurozone breakup, Stock market crash, National Pandemic, national economic collapse.

Level 3 is something we haven't seen recently and needs to be worldwide. A deadly plague, WW III (conventional), A food shortage that hungers over 1 billion more people, an energy shortage that turns off power for 1st world countries for extended periods of time (not rolling blackouts or temporary), many governments fall simultaneously

Level 4 is doomsday level stuff. Local nuclear exchange. A massive sun flare that wipes out satellites and electricity worldwide. Collapse of world trade. At least a billion dead in a year.

Level 5 is human race survival SHTF ...zombie apocalypse, alien invasion, Noah's worldwide flood, dinosaur meteor, ice age with glaciers down to Mexico. Multi-Billions dead if not everybody.


What I like about having the levels categorized is it makes planning easier.

A good plan A for a level 1 event would be to leave the area. That plan would include having a place to go.

Level 2 would require a plan for leaving the country. At the moment I'm thinking such a plan could have benefited a lot of Jews just before WWII.

For Level 3 there might not be anywhere to go so it would require a different approach than level 1 or 2. (bug in or out?)

Level 4 and you're probably going to need a bunker and maybe a boat?

Level 5 and your best bet is probably going to prayer, bullets, and an ark.

Not much need for a level 6?

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