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-   -   Peak Oil and Exponential Growth (http://www.firearmstalk.com/forums/f51/peak-oil-exponential-growth-57795/)

partdeux 02-15-2012 07:32 PM

Peak Oil and Exponential Growth
 
This video does an excellent job of presenting the theory of peak oil and the cost of production, plus a little bit of money, food, and population issues
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VOMWzjrRiBg

bkt 02-15-2012 10:14 PM

No offense to you, partdeux, but I made it about a third of the way through that video before I started retching. It's long on ideological rhetoric and short on facts and logic. Just the title - THERE IS NO TOMORROW - is arguably a mite glum.

Here's the deal. Peak Oil is generally defined as the time at which production and demand meet in a given locale. This unquestionably IS happening right now in places. But that is not the same as saying half of all oil is consumed and we only have another 80 years or so before there isn't a drop left for anyone.

Chris Martenson does an outstanding job explaining this, growth, exponential curves, and other things in his Crash Course. Situations change and we must and will adapt to them.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

partdeux 02-16-2012 01:17 AM

Chris Martenson does an EXCELLENT job of presenting the SAME information. BUT, many people glaze over trying to watch it. This 30 min video that had you retching, while it was a bit long on rhetoric, still has the same message. We are literally running out of oil, each barrel takes more energy to retrieve, is harder to find, and we need more of it. It also puts forth the exact same discussion on exponential growth.

downsouth 02-16-2012 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partdeux
Chris Martenson does an EXCELLENT job of presenting the SAME information. BUT, many people glaze over trying to watch it. This 30 min video that had you retching, while it was a bit long on rhetoric, still has the same message. We are literally running out of oil, each barrel takes more energy to retrieve, is harder to find, and we need more of it. It also puts forth the exact same discussion on exponential growth.

Keystone pipeline anybody? I know it won't cure the problem, but why turn it down? Politics

partdeux 02-16-2012 03:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by downsouth (Post 709964)
Keystone pipeline anybody? I know it won't cure the problem, but why turn it down? Politics

Follow the money... always follow the money.

If not a pipeline, how to move the oil. Rail would probably be a solution. Hmm, who owns a rail line that might be in a position to transport the oil? Anyone? Follow the money.

Having said that, the problem with tar sand oil, is it's extremely difficult to get the oil out. We're going after the difficult to get oil now. The easy to get stuff is all gone. We burn a barrel of oil and only retrieve between 3 & 10 barrels where it used to be 100:1. The retrieval curve is also exponential, but turned upside down. We're on the steep slope down.

The video spent a lot of time looking at alternatives, but we have not found a viable alternative to oil.

Durangokid 02-16-2012 03:47 AM

Oil is not harder to find. The cost of exploration and production has been pushed up by lawyers and Enviro groups. During the Clinton years "Stripper" were shut in on all public lands. This was a loss of 30% of U.S. production. Under Obama getting permits to drill has been impossible. We are shutting in Natural Gas wells and plants. We have miles of tar sands and shale. China, Germany, France and England are buying up American leases. China and Russia are drilling off the U.S. coast line. Our President will not allow Americans to use their own oil. Americans are afraid of risk period. They will shiver and freeze in the dark as other nations use our mineral wealth.:confused:

bkt 02-16-2012 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partdeux (Post 709925)
Chris Martenson does an EXCELLENT job of presenting the SAME information. BUT, many people glaze over trying to watch it. This 30 min video that had you retching, while it was a bit long on rhetoric, still has the same message. We are literally running out of oil, each barrel takes more energy to retrieve, is harder to find, and we need more of it. It also puts forth the exact same discussion on exponential growth.

I think it's fair to say that demand (consumption) is meeting production worldwide, or it's getting too close for comfort. That obviously means some things need to change. Either we need to increase production or reduce consumption. It is getting increasingly difficult to find new deposits, but there are still an awful lot of known fields we haven't tapped into due to artificial barriers put in place by politicians.

Growth is a big issue. As India and China get closer to first-world status, their demand for fuel will increase exponentially, making it impossible to serve the world's demand.

This really is a serious issue we need to work through.

As for people whose eyes glaze over while listening to Martenson's Crash Course...what can you say about them? When the words "the next 25 years will be nothing like the last 25 years" don't inspire people to pay attention, they get what they deserve.

bkt 02-16-2012 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by downsouth (Post 709964)
Keystone pipeline anybody? I know it won't cure the problem, but why turn it down? Politics

And money. Warren Buffett owns a train line that brings in oil and gas in that region and the pipeline would effectively shut that down or at least seriously impact his line. Obama torpedoed the pipeline as a favor to his buddy Warren.

bkt 02-16-2012 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durangokid (Post 710124)
Oil is not harder to find. The cost of exploration and production has been pushed up by lawyers and Enviro groups.

Yup, that's true. Oil isn't as easy to find as it once was, but it's still out there and we can find it. Getting to it is the trick. Not because of technical hurdles but because of politicians blocking access.

damocles 02-16-2012 02:14 PM

How much is that oil worth to you? Would you rather have cheap oil and contaminated well water and orange, flammable rivers; or clean air and water, natural resources you can enjoy and pass on, with alternative energy sources?


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