The Most Probable Scenario
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Old 07-25-2007, 03:11 PM   #1
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Default The Most Probable Scenario

What do you think the most likely apocalyptic scenario would be to occur *if at all* *first* in the future?

Nuclear War? Economic Depression? Famine? Plague? etc...

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Old 07-25-2007, 04:14 PM   #2
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Default Probably will start as a terrorist attack

The may utilize chemical or biological weapons, but I suspect that the most likely will be a series of dirty bombs along the Eastern coast. Look for New York, Washington, Baltimore, Boston and probably down the Virginia coastline.

Scenario: Panic stricken Easterners flee with little more than the clothes on their backs. No cash, most with no pre selected plan and panic driven flight.
Most credit card approval centers are in Maryland, so kiss most credit - and a lot of debit - cards goodbye. Now they are fleeing with little gas, no plan and NO MONEY.

North and South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee will get hammered with terrified travelers - some of whom will be radioactive contaminated.

This will put a huge strain on the infrastructure of several states that are NOT prepared for the population overflow.

Then the feces will really start to hit the fan. Think marshal law, curfews, usurpation of basic rights and freedoms. In short, a recipe for absolute chaos.

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Old 07-25-2007, 07:12 PM   #3
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The question is whether they'd be going for casualties or chaos. If the former, expect major population centers to be hit simultaneously, followed up by similar hits in other major areas soon thereafter. If the latter, they'll go after financial areas and infrastructure: WTC redux, government centers, Delaware, Baltimore, the few refineries we have operating, pipelines, major roadways, major distribution centers, and maybe nuke plants.

That's a helluva lot of coordination.

Pop a nuke a couple hundred miles straight up and north of North Dakota and you'll likely fry most electronics in North America. The trick is getting a big nuke a couple hundred miles up. Unless Russia or China are gonna supply the transportation, this shouldn't be a huge weight on your shoulders.

Nukes are unpleasant devices and I sure wouldn't want to be around one when it does its thing, but the radiation threat is probably somewhat less than one might expect. Decay is pretty quick (weeks) and fallout dangerous enough to people tends to fall to the ground in a few hours and is not carried thousands of miles. Smaller radioactive particles are carried thousands of miles but are so dispersed by the time they hit the ground they don't pose much more risk than walking through a hallway made of cinder blocks. The prudent thing to know the prevailing wind patterns for your area.

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Then the feces will really start to hit the fan. Think marshal law, curfews, usurpation of basic rights and freedoms. In short, a recipe for absolute chaos.
If you have seen http://youtube.com/watch?v=-taU9d26wT4, I sincerely hope you all would do your utmost to prevent these pieces of dirt from trying to confiscate firearms.
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Old 07-25-2007, 08:34 PM   #4
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Default Tennessee ain't New Orleans!

There is a deer rifle behind every door, and God help the fools who try to take anything from anybody. We do watch out for our neighbors.

Remember, boys and girls - kevlar is bullet resistant but it is NOT flame proof. It melts readily when a small amount of accelerant and ignition are provided.

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Old 07-26-2007, 01:22 AM   #5
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Remember, boys and girls - kevlar is bullet resistant but it is NOT flame proof. It melts readily when a small amount of accelerant and ignition are provided.

So you're sayin' you'd shoot a Mosin Nagant M44 at them?
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Old 07-28-2007, 07:49 AM   #6
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If a nuke is detonated in an American city, EVERYTHING CHANGES. The world as we have known it will cease to exist.

It is said that the Japanese decided not to invade the United States following the attack on Pearl Harbor, because they were detered by the fact that so many Amereicans were armed. I don't know if that is true, but I fear that the enemy we now face is not detered by any level of force. With the exception of thier senior leaders, the terrorists actually want to die. How the hell do you defend against that?

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Old 07-31-2007, 03:19 AM   #7
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IMO, the most likely scenario will be that the central government will accelerate its presumption of power and begin dismantling constitutional protections in a rapid, systematic manner. It will begin rounding up "undesirables" and begin adding many subgroups to that category and requiring them to forfeit all assets. There will be a catalyst event, but the event will be coincidental and used as an excuse without being a reason. A great deal of propaganda will be produced which will fool and instill unwarranted fear in the majority of the people who are not classified as undesirable, and those fools will clamor for more usurpation of control by the central government.

The groundwork has already been laid with the asset forfeiture laws, RICO, the "Patriot" Act, a standing army, and a multitude of executive orders related to civil disturbances.

Remember, there is no constitutional warrant for martial law in the USA, and its use is strictly illegal.

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Old 07-31-2007, 10:03 AM   #8
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How the hell do you defend against that?
Establish a deterrent. It would be very refreshing to hear our president say something like:
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It is the Constitutional duty of the Federal government to protect the people in the event of an attack. To that end, should one or more nuclear bombs be detonated anywhere in North America, I have directed the Pentagon to devise a system to automatically launch a simultaneous nuclear attack on the following cities: Mecca, Medina, Tehran, Damascus, Baghdad, Islamabad, Manila, Jakarta, Sana'a, Cairo, Khartoum and Mogadishu. These attacks will be with devices sufficient to utterly destroy each city. Additional cities and regions may be added to this list in the future.

The United States is acutely aware that not all governments could possibly be responsible for a nuclear bomb being detonated in North America. This is a deterrent. Given we know where our enemy comes from and given the lack of cooperation we have received from these countries, we put the onus on the governments of these countries to ensure these nuclear massacres never take place; not in North America, and not in their own cities.
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Old 07-31-2007, 03:11 PM   #9
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Default Most probable Senario

Hello all


RON L = SERESURPLUS



I see an economic breakdown, with coupled more terror attacks from our buddies in the MIDDLE EAST! A Dirty BOMB, Perhaps, a Lot more GUN CONTROL and WEAPONS Prohibitions? You bet? What will remain, is the real folks that eat breath SURVIVAL will make it! Those with a Plan and preps stand a chance, those on the sidelines? Well, someone gotta be the slave? I'm 50, I've lived a good life, I won't die on my kneee's if it comes it it? I'll give back as good as I get?


I'd like to think I can slink off to live a peacefull life, but thats never really been the way, has it? I'd like to live as Survivalist Farmer, with maybe a small route for Trade, but I doubt it will be allowed? I think the days ahead are bad indeed?

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Old 08-03-2007, 05:04 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allmons View Post
The may utilize chemical or biological weapons, but I suspect that the most likely will be a series of dirty bombs along the Eastern coast. Look for New York, Washington, Baltimore, Boston and probably down the Virginia coastline.

Scenario: Panic stricken Easterners flee with little more than the clothes on their backs. No cash, most with no pre selected plan and panic driven flight.
Most credit card approval centers are in Maryland, so kiss most credit - and a lot of debit - cards goodbye. Now they are fleeing with little gas, no plan and NO MONEY.

North and South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee will get hammered with terrified travelers - some of whom will be radioactive contaminated.

This will put a huge strain on the infrastructure of several states that are NOT prepared for the population overflow.

Then the feces will really start to hit the fan. Think marshal law, curfews, usurpation of basic rights and freedoms. In short, a recipe for absolute chaos.

I agree. If you want a preview of what to expect, look at New Orleans after hurricane Katrina hit the gulf coast. I live in east Texas and we had (STILL have in many places like Houston) similar problems with refugees after Katrina 2 years ago. In fact, after almost 2 years, there are still a lot of Katrina refugees/evacuees who haven't returned, though it has as much to do with the mismanagement of the rebuilding and recovery effort at ALL levels as anything involving the hurricane/flood itself.
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Last edited by rachilders; 08-03-2007 at 05:07 PM.
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