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Buying precious metals before the election


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Old 01-29-2017, 02:09 PM   #81
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Buying gold, as a hedge against a possible imminent disaster, is betting that you know more than the people who own the gold now.

Investing in gold, as a hedge against imminent disaster, without holding the physical product, is betting on knowing more than those who hold it and also depending on those who are holding it to make good on their promises after the disaster.

Thatís a good point, Chain. If gold or silver prices are predicted to go up, why are these people selling their gold and silver today???

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Old 01-29-2017, 02:58 PM   #82
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The fees charged to get possession of gold/silver cause a decrease in your net worth.
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Old 01-29-2017, 03:44 PM   #83
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Thatís a good point, Chain. If gold or silver prices are predicted to go up, why are these people selling their gold and silver today???

ellis
Here's the funny thing, there are over 300 people that think they own the same 1 ounce of gold. Paper trading of precious metals isn't based on actual metal ownership. Paper trading is setting the price. People buy and people sell all the time.

Remember, gold is not an investment. Gold is a hedge against inflation and a storage of value.

About a year ago, there was an actual shortage of metals, making it difficult to obtain precious metals. That by itself should have driven the price up, but it didn't, there was a sudden flooding of mass sell orders in the paper market keeping the price down.
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Old 01-29-2017, 05:26 PM   #84
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The fees charged to get possession of gold/silver cause a decrease in your net worth.
Mongo that is a legitimate concern, but it mainly affects smaller investors. The Bullion house sellers regularly charge a .10-.50 per oz fee on small transactions. This "over spot" is the middle ground that their companies live on day to day. Its the small profit that keeps the lights on for them when the market isn't really moving.

You are betting on a raise in value that covers the spot+over spot+shipping to make a profit. Unless the market is swinging wildly this is a long term investment. Think years, not months. When you buy in the larger amounts, 100 oz+, you pay spot price plus the actual shipping fee. The downside is you have to buy 100-1K oz at a time, and do it with cash. That kind of cash isn't spare change that you had lying around, it comes from selling off other investments and shifting your portfolio around.

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Originally Posted by Chainfire View Post
Buying gold, as a hedge against a possible imminent disaster, is betting that you know more than the people who own the gold now.

Investing in gold, as a hedge against imminent disaster, without holding the physical product, is betting on knowing more than those who hold it and also depending on those who are holding it to make good on their promises after the disaster.
Chain that's why I do physical metals not "paper notes" or metal futures. Physical possession of the metals is the way to go when you are hedging. And "ALL" investing is betting that you know more than the other guy...

Seriously we buy and sell every day based on the fact that we "see trends" that may or may not be real. Its a form of gambling with very high stakes. Those that see a little farther and guess a little better make a very good living out of it. Others don't do as well but still make a moderate profit because the whole market is in an upswing. And loose moderately when the market is in a downswing. And some loose their shirts by betting stupidly. You can't fix stupid, but you can make a profit on it...

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Originally Posted by ellis36 View Post
That’s a good point, Chain. If gold or silver prices are predicted to go up, why are these people selling their gold and silver today???

ellis
Ellis there is always someone who needs the money right now. Personal reasons or whatever. They may have bought 20 years before and the current market price is a good profit to them. Part of what makes the market unpredictable is the fact that not all of us are at the same point in the investment cycle at the same time. Maybe they have reached retirement age and are cashing out to go enjoy life. Maybe they are going to buy a house. And maybe they are "seeing a trend" and betting the wrong way. You never know...


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Originally Posted by partdeux View Post
Here's the funny thing, there are over 300 people that think they own the same 1 ounce of gold. Paper trading of precious metals isn't based on actual metal ownership. Paper trading is setting the price. People buy and people sell all the time.

Remember, gold is not an investment. Gold is a hedge against inflation and a storage of value.

About a year ago, there was an actual shortage of metals, making it difficult to obtain precious metals. That by itself should have driven the price up, but it didn't, there was a sudden flooding of mass sell orders in the paper market keeping the price down.
That is right on the money and shows a deep understanding of how the market works, sir! Most people never understand the market in a broader sense...
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Old 01-30-2017, 12:18 PM   #85
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I think all BS aside whether its gold, silver, general diversified portfolio stocks, or real estate as long as you are persistent and consistent with your investing that you will have a nice chunk at retirement. Will you get rich fast? Probably not, will you have enough to retire without social security? Probably if you can get 20 years of good investing going.

Thoughts on that?
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Old 01-30-2017, 01:08 PM   #86
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I think all BS aside whether its gold, silver, general diversified portfolio stocks, or real estate as long as you are persistent and consistent with your investing that you will have a nice chunk at retirement. Will you get rich fast? Probably not, will you have enough to retire without social security? Probably if you can get 20 years of good investing going.

Thoughts on that?
Persistence helps but it won't guarantee a return on its own. A retirement plan managed by others will sometimes give you a decent return and sometimes give you a loss. Entirely based on their skill and market conditions. I'm more comfortable trusting in my own skills.

Your trusting someone else's skills at investment over your own with a managed, hands off fund. That will get you a moderate return on the average as the market rises, and a moderate loss when the market drops. You should make some money if your in it long term. That's because the market trends up over the long term.

Having enough to retire is a subjective thing. It's based on how much of an income you expect and how long and deeply you invest. Twenty years is a bit the short term so you need to invest a little deeper than someone who has thirty years to let the money turn over. Higher percentage of your income needed to hit the mark. My investments are aimed at doubling my principal every seven years. This is in addition to new investment moneys I'm putting in.

For me I'm expecting $50k a year to cover an expected 65 to 85+ years so 20x50k=2million bucks+. I'm past that line already. That means my principle money will last longer, or I can live a little higher. That is my base line. My investments are tailored to maximize my gain now, and will be shifted to dividend producer's as retirement gets closer. Touching the principle is last resort and won't start till after 85 the way I planned. The principle will last another 20 years at the $50k rate, so money runs out at 105 years old. That's the oldest member of my family. Basic way to plan how much you need, plug in your own numbers...

Will your investments get you to this point? Are you putting away enough yearly to get to this point? Is your own goal lower/higher? Are your investments going to continue to grow after you stop putting money in? Or are they of the type that your money is basically a bank account and start going down when you cash out? Those are questions that only you can answer. Every situation is different. I know that sounds like a cop out, but it's the truth. Learning enough to make informed decisions for yourself is your only real defense. Not professional advise but what has worked for me over the years. Hope that helps.
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Old 01-30-2017, 04:35 PM   #87
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I've been around for 70 years and I am NOT a "certified investment person"
I've seen a lot of ups and downs over the years. The idea was to put your money away and ride through the ups and downs and to NOT put anything into the stock market unless you could AFFORD to LOSE it in it's entirety.
With that said, I came out ahead on some stocks, and I had the misfortune of having to draw money out (like a sucker to help my son who is practicing to be a LOSER) to bail out my son when the market was down.

I don't bail him out anymore. I got a call from him last week and told him, too bad so sad, you've been to the well too many times (he's 47 years old).

First two years of our marriage we found out that corporate America (back in 1982) doesn't care about you or your future. We went on a vacation to only find out we had BOTH been laid off while we were gone!!

So.... we started buying residential rental real estate.

It worked out fair. A lot of BS over 30 years and we dealt with a lot of FRUIT CAKES, Dopers, FRUITS, and every year the LOSERS tried to OUTDO the last LOSER!

Finally got out of it 04,
had to pay a lot a "capital gains" even though we did "shelter one place"
Capital gains are a RIP OFF. INFLATION hurts you on this!

don't believe in "write offs" either. They are DEFERRED TAXES that you might owe at a HIGHER rate due to inflation.

I knew one "old timer" when I was on the "front end" of this game, and he took NO write offs. He came out better in the end.

you have to remember 3 things in real estate.... location...location....location..

and BTW, you'd think if you were charging $2400 a month rent for a home in Scottsdale AZ that you'd get a "good renter". Well, they have an "entitlement attitude" and believe that you OWE them!! BEWARE and be a HARD nose. I should have went to TRUMP university back in the day. He Did a LOT BETTER then me!!

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Old 02-01-2017, 12:39 PM   #88
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Chain that's why I do physical metals not "paper notes" or metal futures. Physical possession of the metals is the way to go when you are hedging. And "ALL" investing is betting that you know more than the other guy...
Bingo!!!!!

i've made oodles of money on precious metals. Bought my first gold in 1974. In 1980 it hit $800 per ounce. Been buying low and selling high ever since.

http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/gold-price-1970
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Old 02-01-2017, 03:43 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by formerCav View Post
I've been around for 70 years and I am NOT a "certified investment person"
I've seen a lot of ups and downs over the years. The idea was to put your money away and ride through the ups and downs and to NOT put anything into the stock market unless you could AFFORD to LOSE it in it's entirety.
With that said, I came out ahead on some stocks, and I had the misfortune of having to draw money out (like a sucker to help my son who is practicing to be a LOSER) to bail out my son when the market was down.

I don't bail him out anymore. I got a call from him last week and told him, too bad so sad, you've been to the well too many times (he's 47 years old).

First two years of our marriage we found out that corporate America (back in 1982) doesn't care about you or your future. We went on a vacation to only find out we had BOTH been laid off while we were gone!!

So.... we started buying residential rental real estate.

It worked out fair. A lot of BS over 30 years and we dealt with a lot of FRUIT CAKES, Dopers, FRUITS, and every year the LOSERS tried to OUTDO the last LOSER!

Finally got out of it 04,
had to pay a lot a "capital gains" even though we did "shelter one place"
Capital gains are a RIP OFF. INFLATION hurts you on this!

don't believe in "write offs" either. They are DEFERRED TAXES that you might owe at a HIGHER rate due to inflation.

I knew one "old timer" when I was on the "front end" of this game, and he took NO write offs. He came out better in the end.

you have to remember 3 things in real estate.... location...location....location..

and BTW, you'd think if you were charging $2400 a month rent for a home in Scottsdale AZ that you'd get a "good renter". Well, they have an "entitlement attitude" and believe that you OWE them!! BEWARE and be a HARD nose. I should have went to TRUMP university back in the day. He Did a LOT BETTER then me!!
I had a couple investment properties over the years. Got away from it because of the time and hassle involved. I invested in businesses. Bought ownership on several that I though we're basically sound but badly managed. I'm an MBA international buisness, replaced the problem and turned them around then sold them for a profit. My wife and I did this with our spare time while working for the auto plant.

Your right about the losers and idiots, it's not limited to rentals. Hire an inexperienced manager and it's a crap shoot. Some of them think their job is to sit with their feet up on the desk and yell at the staff. I've told a few they should go back to flipping burgers...

Hoping Trump will take an axe to the capital gains tax. All investors hate being taxed on the money multiple times. It's the most unfair of all the taxes we pay...
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-- Rush Limbaugh, in a moment of unaccustomed profundity

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms. The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government"
-- Thomas Jefferson, 1 Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

"MOLON LABE" - Come and get them, can't be any plainer than that!

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