Bug out or hunker down?
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Bug out or hunker down?


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Old 08-14-2011, 12:36 AM   #1
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Default Bug out or hunker down?

So, I've been reviewing my SHTF plan.

We've got tall mountains with about a million little bolt holes about 20 miles to the west. My original thought was Bug Out at the first sign of real trouble, like mushroom clouds on the horizon, collapse of the grid or similar.

My plan was to load the dogs, food and water, hardware and ammo into the truck, jump on the Highline Canal trail, which will keep me off the arteries that are sure to be clogged with unprepared, panicky yuppies, thereby avoiding most traffic jams. Drop by my buddies house, (He'll be more ready than I am) collect him and his family and, if necessary, shoot our way out. I've biked the entire canal trail so I know I'd be able to pick our way west out of town to one of about a dozen secure places you can only get to with 4X4 that I'm pretty sure no one else would think of. From there, we head about three ranges in, dig in and lay low.

But, that's got some holes. I've got 3 months worth of food I can load in about 5 minutes. I've got 4 long guns and 2 pistols, couple minutes to load. Eight 50 cal sized ammo cans. likewise. Three dogs that head straight for the truck as soon as the door opens. It's the water that is my concern. It's gallon jugs sealed with duct tape. They're heavy and there are more than 100 of them and if it's going down, I can't see getting that much weight, moved out of the basement, (through the light well) into the truck, in less than 20 minutes.

Tick Tock. Tick Tock.

Add to that the fact that what if the emergency involves an EMP and the truck's useless. I've got the 4-wheeler and the little trailer but that seems like a last resort, relying too much on what I can scrounge once I've made it out. It also offers less protection than my SUV.

So I'm asking myself, what's wrong with hunkering down, seal the house and give it a month or so to settle down. I'm far enough out from Metro that if the unrulies torch the city, I'd not likely to be overly affected. My street is long and has no outlet so I'd have very little through traffic and have enough of an arsenal, and can hit long enough that I'd probably be able to hold off anything short of an organized, armed effort. That's supposing I can't escape notice, which would of course, be my primary goal. My basement is poured concrete and, while not lavish, would offer some protection.

After the dust settles, load the trailer, and make my way west. I'm sure that has some holes as well so feel free to poke as many in it as you wish. I'll be doing the same thing. I feel like it's becoming more and more necessary to plan this out.
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Old 08-14-2011, 01:19 AM   #2
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Unless you have a VERY specific destination (summer cabin, lake house, 3rd bunker on the left, etc) you need to consider (a) the THOUSANDS of others with the same plan, and (b) folks that are already there- and have YOU included in their plans. (Hint- it ain't pleasant) and (C) the state police, national guard, etc, that will be controlling traffic- you ARE going to go where they want you- or argue with the guy on the APC that is blocking the exit.

I would be in favor of preparing to BE where I want to be- and staying there. Got any neighbors that would be reliable people to have around if SHTF? If I have to move, there are ways other than a full sized motor vehicle.

BTW, that 100 jugs of water weighs about 830 lbs. A good backpackers water filter weighs about a pound. Mine will pull radioactive fallout out of water.
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Old 08-14-2011, 01:44 AM   #3
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I'm going nowhere unless staying home is more dangerous than venturing out. My home holds a hell of a lot more than I could ever transport.

That said, I do have multiple stocked bug-out locations with multiple routes (off road, too) to get there. If I were bugging out, there wouldn't be need to bring more than a few days' supplies to use to get to the BOL.

C3's right - a camelback and a good backpacker's filter is far more appealing than hauling water.
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Old 08-14-2011, 01:59 AM   #4
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i concur with both above comments
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Old 08-14-2011, 03:47 AM   #5
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Default I've got a pretty good H2O filter.

But I've been stockpiling in case it a grid shut down or similar. We lose power, the water pressure soon follows and if I don't plan on leaving, I'd rather not hump scummy 100 yards from the canal to the house. Increases the level of exposure. If it's biological, I'm thinking staying put may be as good as bugging out, to reduce the risk of exposure. That's my greatest concern, some kind of bug. It's happened before and the wrong (or right?) set of circumstances could see it happen again.

Bugging out, I've got a good water source at any of my possible destinations, chosen specifically for that resource. The other problem that crops up with hunkering down, as I analyze it further, waiting around for the path to clear, while survivable, leads to possibly fighting my way past those that may have shown up first, although I would not expect many to actually be able to survive without their I-Phones so that's not an much of a concern.

But running into those trying to restore some semblance of order, who may consider me too well armed for their comfort, would not be good, hence the bug out route along a 35 mile bike path that goes under all the main roads and leads directly into the foothills. That part I've thought out pretty carefully.

As shooter pointed out, being where you want to be ahead of the emergency is ideal, but I was taught a great deal of what I know by my grandad who believed in preparing for any possible scenario. Which is why the first time he dropped me off in the woods with only a knife, I was 9. At least it was summer.

When I was still a department head in a manufacturing firm, we had periodic emergency drills and I would always point out that in most drills, the thing that's missing is the emergency.

In any case, I'm doing a preparedness drill next weekend so see how fast I can get everything packed, sans the half ton of h20, and then spend the weekend in Roosevelt national park.
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Old 08-14-2011, 05:08 AM   #6
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I live just off of a federal two lane highway and the intersection of a paved county road that connects a state highway 14 miles away. I'm not very pleased with all the security and possible traffic concerns that raises. Never the less, unless there a fire at the ag supply facility a few blocks away, or a hazardous spill on the railroad just two blocks away I am staying put. I have the materials to shelter in place and seal the house if need be. If I have to get out of a hazardous plume I can have few days worth of supplies loaded in just a couple of minutes.

If I am bugging out for good it would take me probably half an hour at least to load the essentials if I am alone. Much less time if the wife and son are there. This is an absolute last option. I would much rather stay where I have all of my clothing, hand tools, screws, nails, food, etc. than have to leave something behind that I might have a desperate need for later. I have a pretty decent support system here with friends who will assist and get assistance when needed. I wouldn't like to give that up either. Where I would head to is not that far away and would not be on an LE radar for observation or road security. Even if travel restrictions are put into place getting caught or even seen would not be very probable.
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Old 08-14-2011, 05:50 AM   #7
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If we have to bug out, I have a fairly comprehensive amount of equipment and supplies packed and ready to go. There are two large storage tubs with all the camping gear we might need, a large job box on wheels filled with bulk foods, and a wheeled medium size footlocker filled with bugout equipment and miscellaneous necessities. We'd have to grab the cats & their food, load weapons and ammo and load as much food as we can. I already keep water in the SUV.

I also have two small document cases that contain any paperwork we may need such as insurance policies, etc. That's if paperwork is even still useful.

Mostly, I expect to stay here, but we'd be okay if we had to beat feet. However, being a traveler or a refugee holds no appeal.
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Old 08-14-2011, 01:26 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by c3shooter View Post
Got any neighbors that would be reliable people to have around if SHTF?
I've been working for the past year or so on putting together my very own PAW Posse with my neighbors under the guise of a Community Watch program.



It's working pretty well so far. All of them have picked up handheld CB's, a firearm and made at least minimal food and water emergency preparations. A few have been bitten by the prepping bug and taken firearms training classes, first aid courses, and learning self reliance.

And all it took was a neighborhood BBQ and a few beers to get the ball rolling.
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Old 08-14-2011, 02:26 PM   #9
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I've got the same CB radio - Midland 75-822. It's a great little radio! The older ones can be modified by bridging two connections on the PCB to get single sideband - 120 channels - and greater range out of the lower/upper bands. The newer ones have different PCBs...not sure if they can be hacked. Establishing reliable point-to-point communications over a long range (8-10 miles) and staying within the bounds of FCC regs has been a pain square in the arse.

For bugging out, try to keep it simple and plan what you want to take way ahead of time. Fuel, bug-out bags, silver/gold, paperwork (yes, paperwork is important), pets & pet food. That's about it. (BOBs have clothing, food & water along with other important stuff.) It would take less than 10 minutes to get packed up and scram.

In my case, my home is not in an enviable location. I have a very large lake to the north, a very liberal city populated with several hundred thousand welfare recipients to the south, an enormous bay to the east and a wide river to the west. I'm boxed in. So it's important to pay very close attention to what's going on and be ready to leave, but using your head is also important.
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Old 08-14-2011, 05:24 PM   #10
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Default Neighbors

My neighbors are all good decent people and without exception we all get along. Having said that, there are about 7 people on this planet I trust without equivocation and living next door to me doesn't get anyone on that list.

At the risk of being indelicate, most of the people in this neighborhood I think would just bolt in every direction without a plan or a destination, most of them likely trying to bring their boats, and wind up roadkill.

I think any plan is better than no plan at all so I'm going to go with bug out.
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