Black Swan Event
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Black Swan Event


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Old 09-01-2011, 04:09 PM   #1
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Default Black Swan Event

Partdeaux mentioned a "Black Swan Event" as being the likely catalyst for SHTF. I had never heard the term before, so I looked it up and found some explanations. Here's one that I think best describes it.

"What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. Ever since we left the Pleistocene, some ten millennia ago, the effect of these Black Swans has been increasing. It started accelerating during the industrial revolution, as the world started getting more complicated, while ordinary events, the ones we study and discuss and try to predict from reading the newspapers, have become increasingly inconsequential."


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Old 09-01-2011, 05:13 PM   #2
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Some refer to the mortgage crisis as a black swan event, I don't believe it was. It's just most of us lacked sufficient information or training to see the potential risk of the credit default swaps.

there is a world wide credit crisis that is still forming, I also don't believe that to be a black swan event. Once again, most people do not have sufficient training to understand the depth of the crisis, and most certainly the news media does not. But, it's there for everybody to see. An example, if the US govt were required to report future obligations to the same extent they require of corporations, they reported debt would be reported at 75+ Trillion, not the often reported 14 Trillion. In addition, there is also a substantial amount of "off" book expenses and debt.

I suspect we will have some off the wall event that will cause some worldwide catastrophe, probably as a result of an unintended consequence.

It was some extraneous concerns that has finally led me to purchasing firearms and getting some training. If nothing happens, I picked up a fun, albeit expensive hobby. If something does happen, I've started preparing for our safety.


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Old 09-01-2011, 05:16 PM   #3
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PD, self defense is only part of the survival equation. Food, water, heat, light, medical supplies and a bunch more stuff goes into it.
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Old 09-01-2011, 06:51 PM   #4
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Food is taken care of... we started canning for the fun of it, and went overboard. Mostly because we came to realize, hey this home grown and canned stuff is really really good. An example, it's just as easy to cook a pot of chili as a roaster full of it. Water is probably our weakest point right now. Trying to develop a good "workable" plan, and so far haven't come up with one.

I understand the implications and the requirements for a true prepper. There's also the reality of things too. I was asked years ago what I would do if Russia started dropping nukes. In my mind, the answer was easy, drive to the big city.

We're working towards complete short term survival, hell two guns and few hundred rounds are going to protect us how much? Still have a long ways to go, but have to start somewhere. There are times i wish we weren't in the middle of a city with a well built and under normal circumstances secure house. If someone wants to get in, without too much trouble, they probably could. I'm taking a completely different look at security these days, and it's troubling. Need to secure things better, and bone up on SD training. While i may be a relatively good shot with the 22, also understand it has serious SD issues.

Next gun on the list is a compact pistol for me. After that, either a shotgun or a plinker for my wife.

Back to the main topic, I have two thoughts on potential black swan events. First is a real worldwide health pandemic that happens so quickly and is virtually untreatable. Second, is a food crisis that causes lasting issues with the food supply. There's been a bunch of "smoke" around the GMO crops and potential health issues. Are they real, IDK, but it is entirely plausible that a crop could be created and genetically "change" in the environment that suddenly goes from being healthy to deadly. Don't discount the Japan nuke crises. There's been some discussion that the material has completed melted through the containment vessels and is continuing to leach into the ground water and ocean. That has not been confirmed in any way that I would trust the info, but if it has, that could get very ugly as it slowly spreads further and further out into the world.
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Old 09-01-2011, 09:31 PM   #5
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Well, we can only do our best. After that, it's up to the Big Guy.
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Old 09-01-2011, 09:34 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CA357 View Post
Partdeaux mentioned a "Black Swan Event" as being the likely catalyst for SHTF. I had never heard the term before, so I looked it up and found some explanations. Here's one that I think best describes it.

"What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives. Ever since we left the Pleistocene, some ten millennia ago, the effect of these Black Swans has been increasing. It started accelerating during the industrial revolution, as the world started getting more complicated, while ordinary events, the ones we study and discuss and try to predict from reading the newspapers, have become increasingly inconsequential."
Ok. I believe you.

Jimmy
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Old 09-01-2011, 10:15 PM   #7
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I am delighted that you concur.
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“If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.”Samuel Adams
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Old 09-02-2011, 01:46 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CA357 View Post
I am delighted that you concur.
Your so well spoken for my little brain....

Jimmy


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