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Old 08-28-2012, 12:33 AM   #31
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I love living here in Indiana we get lifetime permits.

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Old 08-28-2012, 01:16 AM   #32
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What I meant was I did not know if you had posted the Map to say that Chicago *IS* the problem or to support the idea that Chicago is not the problem =)

It's no secret you're not a Quinn fan
I think the map shows clearly that Illinois is being run by Chicago. I think everyone outside Cook County would love to see Chicago become the 51st state.
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Old 08-28-2012, 03:08 AM   #33
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I think the map shows clearly that Illinois is being run by Chicago. I think everyone outside Cook County would love to see Chicago become the 51st state.
With all due respect, I just don't agree

When you have time, I hope you'll read over this, my latest post. I'd love to have a discussion on it with someone like yourself (Who disagrees, but knows how to have a proper debate!)

If you don't want to, I certainly understand...but hopefully, you'll give it some consideration

http://www.notablog.info/2012/08/mistake-by-lake.html
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Old 08-28-2012, 03:38 AM   #34
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I'd be fine with Chicago being the 51st state. I have no reason to go there, hate the taxes, the parking, the crowds and pretty much anyone who lives there. Let the wackos have their paradise/utopia but leave us freedom loving citizens alone.
BTW Pork Chop, great post in the blog(nota), I agree fully. What I said above means that if Cook County were to fall into the lake I would not shed a tear.

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Old 08-28-2012, 04:07 AM   #35
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With all due respect, I just don't agree

When you have time, I hope you'll read over this, my latest post. I'd love to have a discussion on it with someone like yourself (Who disagrees, but knows how to have a proper debate!)

If you don't want to, I certainly understand...but hopefully, you'll give it some consideration

http://www.notablog.info/2012/08/mistake-by-lake.html
Interesting analysis. The hole that I see in your argument is the following:
  1. You state there was approximately 42% statewide voter turnout.
  2. You also state that 1.3 million people out of 5.2 million people chose to vote in Chicago. That is a Chicago voter turnout of 25%. (You might want to double check these numbers)

Even with a far lower voter turnout than the rest of the state, Chicago swung the state.

I double checked the Cook County numbers. 5.2 million is total population. 26% are under 18 leaving a voting age population of 3.8 million. Voter turnout would then have been 34%, still much lower than the state as a whole.
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Old 08-28-2012, 04:28 AM   #36
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Voter turnout is precisely the problem. All we needed was 32,000 of a low-balled 1 million voters and Brady would have won... That was what I was trying to achieve with the post

All we had to do was show up. Chicago absolutely swung the vote... But only because "we" chose not to participate
It's sounding like a chicken or the egg kind of argument. Personally, I'd just like to cut out Cook County and be done with it.
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Old 08-28-2012, 04:36 AM   #37
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Interesting analysis. The hole that I see in your argument is the following:
[*]You state there was approximately 42% statewide voter turnout.[*]You also state that 1.3 million people out of 5.2 million people chose to vote in Chicago. That is a Chicago voter turnout of 25%. (You might want to double check these numbers)


Even with a far lower voter turnout than the rest of the state, Chicago swung the state.

I double checked the Cook County numbers. 5.2 million is total population. 26% are under 18 leaving a voting age population of 3.8 million. Voter turnout would then have been 34%, still much lower than the state as a whole.
Voter turnout is precisely the problem. All we needed was 32,000 of a low-balled 1 million voters and Brady would have won... That was what I was trying to achieve with the post

All we had to do was show up. Chicago absolutely swung the vote... But only because "we" chose not to participate

Edit to clarify


In my example in the not-a-blog post, I 'low balled' all of my estimates just to prove a point (when I listed populations by county, I did not calculate each county's eligible voter population, I only did overall population) so if we look at Cook County's actual voter eligible population, all it really does, in my opinion, is strengthen my argument

Here's what I mean: I did calculate Illinois' overall voter population in at 8.7 million (Over 18, not a felon, not incarcerated, etc)

Of 8.7 million, 3.7 million showed up to vote, leaving 5 million people who can vote, but choose not to.

Cook County, 1.3 million people voted, and if the eligible population is only 3.8 million (my not-a-blog figures only take into consideration overall population of 5.194 million, not filtering out anyone who is not eligible to vote)

But if we do filter those people out and arrive at 3.8 million people who can vote, then we're left with 2.5 million people in Cook County who chose not to vote.

Now, if we're talking about convincing people to vote, obviously "We the people" don't want to convince "Them" to vote. All we have to do is convince 32,000 people on "our side" to show up and cast a vote.

So, to low ball it more than is really necessary (just for added effect) we can take the 2.5 million in Cook County that chose not to vote, and we'll just pretend that 100% of them would vote Democrat so we choose not to influence them to vote, and remove them from the equation.

That leaves 2.5 million voters in the rest of the state of which we can choose to influence. I'd say it's a very safe bet that out of 2.5 million people, convincing 32,000 that their vote does count, to show up and vote for someone like Brady, would be pretty easy...after all it is a mere 1.28% that we need to convince to do nothing more than show up and vote the way they already want to.

If just 1.28% of the eligible voters that don't reside in Cook County would have showed up and voted for the candidate they already supported in 2010, then Brady would have won.

I can't prove that 1.28% of all non-participating eligible voters outside of Cook County would vote Brady, but I argue that it's a more-than-safe bet to make that it's true.
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Old 08-28-2012, 04:41 AM   #38
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It's sounding like a chicken or the egg kind of argument. Personally, I'd just like to cut out Cook County and be done with it.
I had to edit my last post to better articulate my theory...I think it's more clear now...I don't see it as a Chicken or Egg to be honest, it's more of a "Who wants it more?"

If we assume that no other democrats show up in 2010 to vote for their guy, then all we had to do was convince 32,000 more of our guys to win.

IMO, it's a different debate all together to argue who would win if all eligible voters showed up, which is what I believe most people think this argument is about when they say "my vote doesn't count"

That's certainly possible, but their entire team isn't showing up, and neither is ours. All we needed was 1.28% more of non-participating eligible voters that do not live in Cook County, but most of us chose to say "Our vote doesn't count"

Lets prove that it does count ... that's all i'm trying say
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Old 08-29-2012, 03:01 AM   #39
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I'd be fine with Chicago being the 51st state. I have no reason to go there, hate the taxes, the parking, the crowds and pretty much anyone who lives there. Let the wackos have their paradise/utopia but leave us freedom loving citizens alone.
BTW Pork Chop, great post in the blog(nota), I agree fully. What I said above means that if Cook County were to fall into the lake I would not shed a tear.
**********, we're not all like that in Chicago. There's a high number of people forking out hundreds of dollars to get a Chicago firearm permit (like me) and all these people wish our politics were different. And I just read the article previously posted, it does sound like a lot of people don't vote and then complain and blame it on us. Not living in Chicago doesn't somehow make you a superior, more intelligent individual and I've met quite a few highly uneducated people from other parts of the state, see where I'm going if I generalize like you do?
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Old 08-29-2012, 03:12 AM   #40
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**********, we're not all like that in Chicago. There's a high number of people forking out hundreds of dollars to get a Chicago firearm permit (like me) and all these people wish our politics were different. And I just read the article previously posted, it does sound like a lot of people don't vote and then complain and blame it on us. Not living in Chicago doesn't somehow make you a superior, more intelligent individual and I've met quite a few highly uneducated people from other parts of the state, see where I'm going if I generalize like you do?
C'mon, there's no need for the '*********' part. I'm pretty sure that what he meant by "Most people in CHicago" he's talking about gun grabbers. We're all smart enough to realize that not everyone in Chicago is a gun hater, the sheer # of thriving FFL dealers and big box store gun shops in the area are proof of that...but lets be honest, Chicago has a reputation...nobody wants to see YOU slip into the lake...but if the scum of that city ceased to exist, I sure wouldn't shed a tear.

Chicago is a nuisance, but they're not the real problem. The real problem is lethargic, lazy, voters who scapegoat Chicago to justify apathy.
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