I don't know if I can agree that Sonnen got "sloppy" in the final couple of minutes and lost the fight because of that aspect. He was the same level of "sloppy" earlier in the fight as well.
By sloppy I am saying he left his arm inside the guard and used it to posture as he was moving or trying to rain down blows. In the day of the wrestler versus the BJJ fighter this was called "posting" when a wrestler would put his palm on the mat and get caught. Sonnen was leaning on his elbow "inside" Anderson's guard, and he got caught.
Neither side has been truthful about their first fight. Sonnen ROCKED Anderson with his left and had him badly hurt in the first. That put Anderson on his heels, but Sonnen was far from in control the whole fight. He sure put a whooping on Anderson, but his ground & pound technique was poor in certain aspects and he paid the price.
I don't know what to think about this fight. Anderson has been in love with his myth for the past couple of years. Except for the Beltor fight he hasn't really come out with the intent to end the fight in a dominating fashion. Sonnen had walked through everyone at 185 until Michael Bisping gave him a good fight and I don't believe Bisping can crush a grape with his striking.
If Anderson were to come into the Octagon like he did against Chris Leben or Rich Franklin, I think the night is over quickly. If Chael comes in like he did against Paulo Filho and Anderson the first time, I think he will drag Silva to the ground, beat him up and I bet he doesn't leave his elbow in this time around.
I see Anderson by either a ref stoppage or a heel hook type lower body submission.
I see Chael winning a decision or a ref stoppage due to G-n-P.
My money is staying firmly in my pocket though because I don't have confidence in either of these fighters in this fight. Chael has practically moved into Anderson Silva's head and is living there, but his arrogance might be his undoing if Silva is serious. Anderson has made so many lunatic threats & feels he is defending all of Brazil and Jui-Jitsu against Sonnen he is going to be amped to the gills and fighting out of his normal game plan, so he could easily gas or get caught.
I got no idea what is going to happen, but I am going to enjoy watching it.