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sgtdeath66 11-26-2008 04:28 AM

russian analyst prediction: what do u guys think

A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.

Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."

The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.

When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.

bkt 11-26-2008 10:24 AM

The economy might be a catalyst for a break-up, but it would probably be along ethnic and/or political ideological lines if it happens at all. A total economic collapse and even a government collapse would result in a huge percentage of the population who are on the dole in one way or another getting angry. Those not on the dole will be very protective of what they have.

This event isn't really on the radar at this time.

Mark F 11-26-2008 11:21 AM

I suppose the "potential" is there. With enough turmoil and fear, it could happen. But then, you could win the lotto too...

user4 11-26-2008 12:50 PM


Originally Posted by bkt (Post 52541)
The economy might be a catalyst for a break-up, but it would probably be along ethnic and/or political ideological lines if it happens at all. .

I partially agree. I think states would form economic blocks of prosperity. The west coast would be a super power with its temperate climate, lush earth and large seaboard.

States like Utah, Wyoming, and Oklahoma have much less to contribute financially.

I like how the article makes Texas a island unto itself. Though I have to wonder how self sustaining it really is. I don't know what you can really grow here.

Real men will move to Alaska.

sgtdeath66 11-26-2008 03:19 PM

i agree though not big on cold weather, the scenery would be beutiful and i love the whole surviving on my own idea

Benning Boy 11-26-2008 04:02 PM

Since numbers have lost all meaning (what does a trillion of anything look like?), I belive food, fuel and ammo will be the new currency.

Then again, we may all be riding funny cars across a post-apocalyptic countryside, battling ugly people wearing leather and Mohawks, trying desperately to reach Alaska.

sgtdeath66 11-26-2008 04:17 PM

i feel the same way benning boy, we should go back to trade as a way to make a livin, money is the root of all evil, evil i say, although i do love my money

Benning Boy 11-26-2008 04:38 PM

Do you love money, or what money is capable of doing?

sgtdeath66 11-26-2008 04:48 PM

the capabilities, of course. but if money was abolished id be fine with that. some good ol'fashioned tradin would be nice it would show that money isnt a necessity

ScottG 11-26-2008 08:36 PM

Lessee...Russian predicts American collapse and Russia and China taking over. Too bad for Russia and China that they would fall apart first as they have nothing backing their country and economy at all. They both have large ethnic groups who would be more likely to revolt than the people here. Nationalistic chest beating from someone who's country is in worse shape than ours. Not to be believed....

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