Loss of Arctic ice leaves experts stunned
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Old 09-04-2007, 09:05 PM   #1
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Default Loss of Arctic ice leaves experts stunned

Whether you think global warming is man-made or not, this seems a little alarming:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/04/climatechange?gusrc=rss&feed=12

Remember when category 5 hurricanes were a fairly rare occurrence? Now we've had two in the Atlantic in the last couple of weeks.

Methinks we live in interesting times.

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Old 09-04-2007, 10:50 PM   #2
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The interesting times in which we live certainly are anthropogenic in nature but have not a God damned thing to do with climate change. Pardon my friggin' French, but in the relative scheme of things, melting Arctic ice and the frequency of Cat5 hurricanes are non-issues, IMHO.

Look, I don't mean to be a dick about your comment. I'm sure plenty of people are concerned over these developments. But I'm not willing to lunge headlong into an ill-conceived plan that will castrate our economy in the blind hope it will stop a maybe-extremely-long-term-problem, as the AlGore crowd demands.

Personally, I'm more concerned with more immediate and concrete threats. YMMV.

(Incidentally, The Guardian is about the most leftist piece of garbage rag of a news source you can dredge up. And that's saying something. Take what it says with a hefty grain of salt.)

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Old 09-05-2007, 01:51 AM   #3
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I would rather see money being spent on space exploration projects then global warming issues. At some point we are going to overpopulate and we need another planet to ruin before then.

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Old 09-05-2007, 02:52 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bkt View Post
The interesting times in which we live certainly are anthropogenic in nature but have not a God damned thing to do with climate change. Pardon my friggin' French, but in the relative scheme of things, melting Arctic ice and the frequency of Cat5 hurricanes are non-issues, IMHO.
A lot of subject matter experts would disagree with you, but I'm sure you're already aware of that. For example, there's the Pentagon report from 2004 that predicted the following as a possible worst-case scenario:

* By 2020, after a decade of cooling, Europe’s climate becomes “more like Siberia’s.”
* “Mega-droughts” hit southern China and northern Europe around 2010 and last 10 years.
* In the United States, agricultural areas suffer from soil loss due to higher winds and drier climate, but the country survives the economic disruption without catastrophic losses.
* Widespread famine in China triggers chaos, and “a cold and hungry China peers jealously” at Russia’s energy resources. In the 2020-2030 period, civil war and border wars break out in China.
* “Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life.” In a “world of warring states,” more countries develop nuclear weapons, including Japan, South Korea, Germany, Iran and Egypt.

A separate, more recent military report predicted "global warming poses a serious threat to America’s national security with terrorism worsening and the U.S. will likely be dragged into fights over water and other shortages."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18123962

Quote:
Originally Posted by bkt View Post
Look, I don't mean to be a dick about your comment. I'm sure plenty of people are concerned over these developments. But I'm not willing to lunge headlong into an ill-conceived plan that will castrate our economy in the blind hope it will stop a maybe-extremely-long-term-problem, as the AlGore crowd demands.
I actually didn't post the story to push for any kind of plan. I just saw the original article today and thought it was interesting, in a "preparation for TSHTF" kind of context. My own personal non-expert view is that the chances of our reversing a global warming trend are remote at best. The time for action was probably many years ago, and getting any kind of consensus on a plan is clearly going to be impossible. IMHO with global warming, peak oil, overpopulation, and the likely resulting resource wars, we're looking at rough times ahead, probably sooner than you expect.

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Originally Posted by bkt View Post
(Incidentally, The Guardian is about the most leftist piece of garbage rag of a news source you can dredge up. And that's saying something. Take what it says with a hefty grain of salt.)
I've found basically the same article in a lot of different sources--let me know if you need me to post other references. It's not really a matter of opinion, anyway, either the Arctic ice melted or it did not--maybe the Earth has a liberal bias?
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:30 AM   #5
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And 20 years ago, it was "global cooling". The so called experts don't have a clue about climate change, or what's causing it if there actually is a change. Michael Crichton makes more sense in "State of Fear" than the doomsayers- and that's a fictional book.

Sorry for the cut 'n paste, but this sums it up.

* most of the warming in the past century occurred before 1940, before CO2 emissions could have been a major factor (p. 84);

* temperatures fell between 1940 and 1970 even as CO2 levels increased (p. 86);

* temperature readings from reporting stations outside the U.S. are poorly maintained and staffed and probably inaccurate; those in the U.S., which are probably more accurate, show little or no warming trend (pp. 88-89);

* “full professors from MIT, Harvard, Columbia, Duke, Virginia, Colorado, UC Berkeley, and other prestigious schools ... the former president of the National Academy of Sciences ... will argue that global warming is at best unproven, and at worst pure fantasy" (p. 90);

* temperature sensors on satellites report much less warming in the upper atmosphere (which the theory of global warming predicts should warm first) than is reported by temperature sensors on the ground (p. 99);

* data from weather balloons agree with the satellites (p. 100);

* “No one can say for sure if global warming will result in more clouds, or fewer clouds,” yet cloud cover plays a major role in global temperatures (p. 187);

* Antarctica “as a whole is getting colder, and the ice is getting thicker” (p. 193, sources listed on p. 194);

* The Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica has been melting for the past 6,000 years (p. 195, p. 200-201); “Greenland might lose its ice pack in the next thousand years” (p. 363);

* The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is “a huge group of bureaucrats and scientists under the thumb of bureaucrats,” and its 1995 report was revised “after the scientists themselves had gone home” (p. 245-246);

* James Hansen’s predictions of global warming during a Congressional committee hearing in 1988, which launched the global warming scare, were wrong by 200 percent (.35 degrees Celsius over the next 10 years versus the actual increase of .11 degrees); in 1998, Hansen said long-term predictions of climate are impossible (pp. 246-247);

* there has been no increase in extreme weather events (.e.g., floods, tornadoes, drought) over the past century or in the past 15 years; computer models used to forecast climate change do not predict more extreme weather (p. 362, 425-426);

* temperature readings taken by terrestrial reporting stations are rising because they are increasingly surrounded by roads and buildings which hold heat, the “urban heat island” effect (p. 368-369); methods used to control for this effect fail to reduce temperatures enough to offset it (p. 369-376);

* changes in land use and urbanization may contribute more to changes in the average ground temperature than “global warming” caused by human emissions (p. 383, 388);

* temperature data are suspect because they have been adjusted and manipulated by scientists who expect to find a warming trend (p. 385-386);

* carbon dioxide has increased a mere 60 parts per million since 1957, a tiny change in the composition of the atmosphere (p. 387);

* increased levels of CO2 act a fertilizer, promoting plant growth and contributing to the shrinking of the Sahara desert (p. 421);

* the spread of malaria is unaffected by global warming (pp. 421-422, footnotes on 422);

* sufficient data exist to measure changes in mass for only 79 of the 160,000 glaciers in the world (p. 423);

* the icecap on Kilimanjaro has been melting since the 1800s, long before human emissions could have influenced the global climate, and satellites do not detect a warming trend in the region (p. 423); deforestation at the foot of the mountain is the likely explanation for the melting trend (p. 424);

* sea levels have been rising at the rate of 10 to 20 centimeters (four to eight inches) per hundred years for the past 6,000 years (p. 424);

* El Niños are global weather patterns unrelated to global warming and on balance tend to be beneficial by extending growing seasons and reducing the use of heating fuels (p. 426);

* the Kyoto Protocol would reduce temperatures by only 0.04 degrees Celsius in the year 2100 (p. 478);

* a report by scientists published in Science concludes “there is no known technology capable of reducing [global] carbon emissions ... totally new and undiscovered technology is required” (p. 479);

* change, not stability, is the defining characteristic of the global climate, with naturally occurring events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis) much more likely to affect climate than anything humans do (p. 563); and

* computer simulations are not real-world data and cannot be relied on to produce reliable forecasts (p. 566).

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Old 09-05-2007, 02:29 PM   #6
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I guess I should post a link to the rebuttal to the "facts" in the Crichton sci-fi novel:

Answers to Key Questions Raised by M. Crichton in State of Fear
http://www.pewclimate.org/state_of_fear.cfm

I don't think there's any serious question at this point that global warming is occurring. There will always be the non-believers, just like there will always be a group of folks that believe the Earth is 6000 years old. The big questions are what is the cause, and what will be the impact. I'm not so concerned about the cause, personally, as I think it's a moot point. The impact is something that I think is a point of interest regardless of your political leanings.

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Old 09-05-2007, 02:48 PM   #7
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Ah.. another convert to global manmade catastrophe predicted by the same weather models that can't accurately tell us what the weather will be doing 3 weeks from now but are somehow magically precise when it comes to seeing the future planet temps. Sounds like you're ready to restart the "survivalist" movement of the late 70s... in case you're too young to remember, survivalists were going to stockpile arms and ammo and supplies because of the coming ICE AGE... an ice age predicted by several of the same scientists who now espouse global warming. Yawn.....

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Old 09-05-2007, 03:19 PM   #8
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Default Ride it out

Global warming may--or may not--be occurring. The Earth has gone through climate changes before, and no doubt will do so again. A tiny bit of research reveals that there was a Medieval Warm Period as well as the better-known Little Ice Age of the 14th century and onward. Many posting here will recall the Dust Bowl of the 1930s.

I recall reading some years ago that we have just completed a century or so of unusually benign weather, and that more frequent droughts, hurricanes, and floods can be expected--and that certainly seems to be the case.

What seems all but certain is that we humans have nothing to do with these changes, if they are occurring at all. One little datum that is invariably missing from these debates is that the polar ice cap on Mars is shrinking, too--and as far as I know, there are no Republicans driving SUVs there.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

It's wise to be prepared, and to be ready to deal with disasters large and small; in that light, Quasi's post ought to be taken to heart. We may very well be in for an interesting century or more. I have little doubt that the dominant species--us--will find a way to ride it out, as we have before.

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Old 09-05-2007, 07:05 PM   #9
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A wise oklahoma philosopher once said "believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see". Fear, catastrophe and suffering sell... and if you're in line for government grants your research had best be dire and urgent or you'll be at the back of the line with Annie Sprinkle's one woman show about female body parts and Mapplethorpes offensive photos. The truth of the matter, IMHO, is this; Science is a whore. The first one to put their cash on the nightstand gets to determine the outcome of the "study"... which renders all the studies meaningless.
I'm all for being prepared, and I commend any and all who make that choice... but I don't have much patience with folks who use the words "science" and "consensus" in the same sentence, and even less for those that own firearms and take any "research" as gospel. The left has used doctored studies to deny the existence and scope of the second amendment for years, they've systematically lied their way through paper after paper to make their emotional and exploitive case against guns and gun owners. Now the same leftists are using the same tactics with different "researchers" to convince us that the sky is falling...
By all means be prepared. Yawn.

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Old 09-05-2007, 07:43 PM   #10
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Please tell us more about the perils of science and how we too can join the Flat Earth Society. I didn't know Mapplethorpe was a scientist. What did he study, penisology?

Good stuff.

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